Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Orgryte ISDrawMjallby AIF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mjallby AIF 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mjallby AIF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orgryte IS 27%, draw 24%, Mjallby AIF 49%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Orgryte IS win27%

Draw24%

Mjallby AIF win49%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueGamla Ullevi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orgryte IS

Mjallby AIF

5Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mjallby aif winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market46%

Us49%

~~Market~~46%

We make Mjallby AIF a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF~~1.20 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 23~~15 v 12

~~The market · Mjallby AIF win~~46% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mjallby AIF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orgryte IS win	27%	28%	−1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Mjallby AIF win	49%	46%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Orgryte IS or draw	51%	54%	−3
Orgryte IS clean sheet	19%	–	–
Mjallby AIF clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.6 9.4 7.9 4.5 1 6.6 11.0 9.3 5.3 2.3 2 4.0 6.6 5.6 3.2 3 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orgryte IS down, Mjallby AIF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,404 Allsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orgryte IS at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mjallby AIF away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Orgryte IS, 1.71 for Mjallby AIF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MJA 0–2 ORG · ORG 0–3 MJA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 6 Sept

ORGRYTE IS

DLLLWD1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 2–2

MJALLBY AIF

LDDLDL1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17