Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FF prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mjallby AIFDrawHammarby FF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Hammarby FF 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hammarby FF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mjallby AIF 30%, draw 26%, Hammarby FF 45%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mjallby AIF win30%

Draw26%

Hammarby FF win45%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 25

VenueStrandvallen

RefereeVictor Wolf

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mjallby AIF

Hammarby FF

3Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hammarby ff winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 04:20 · locked at kick-off

45% The market64%

Us45%

~~Market~~64%

We make Hammarby FF a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FF~~1.13 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 46~~12 v 3

~~The market · Hammarby FF win~~64% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hammarby FF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mjallby AIF win	30%	15%	+15
Draw	26%	20%	+6
Hammarby FF win	45%	64%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	48%	61%	−13
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	81%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	26%	40%	−14
Mjallby AIF or draw	55%	36%	+19
Mjallby AIF clean sheet	24%	–	–
Hammarby FF clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.7 11.0 7.9 3.9 1 8.6 12.2 8.9 4.3 2 4.8 6.9 5.0 2.5 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mjallby AIF down, Hammarby FF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mjallby AIF at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hammarby FF away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Mjallby AIF, 1.46 for Hammarby FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MJA 2–1 HAM · HAM 3–0 MJA · HAM 1–2 MJA · MJA 3–1 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug

MJALLBY AIF

LDDLDL1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

HAMMARBY FF

LDWWLW2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	−4	33
11	Gais	24	+5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	−18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	−25	19
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17