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Mjallby AIF v Degerfors IF

Mjallby AIF

1–1Full time

Degerfors IF

Allsvenskan · SAT 10 OCT · Strandvallen

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Mjallby AIF 1–1 Degerfors IF MJALLBY AIF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mjallby AIF win~~58%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.954

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.846

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mjallby AIF win at 58%.
0′Much as we predicted: Mjallby AIF was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Mjallby AIF v Degerfors IF
3′Much as we predicted: Mjallby AIF was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Mjallby AIF win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Mjallby AIF win: 58% at kick-off, 51% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mjallby AIF win: 58% at kick-off, 51% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mjallby AIF win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Mjallby AIF win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Mjallby AIF win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
45′SECOND HALF Mjallby AIF 0–0 Degerfors IF
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mjallby AIF 0–1 Degerfors IF
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Mjallby AIF 0–1 Degerfors IF · Arman Taranis
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Mjallby AIF 1–1 Degerfors IF · Arman Taranis
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Mjallby AIF 1–1 Degerfors IF · Jeppe Kjaer Jensen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mjallby AIF · On: Olle Lindberg · Off: Jeppe Kjaer Jensen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Degerfors IF · On: Robin Dzabic · Off: Noel Milleskog
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Degerfors IF · On: Samba Diatara · Off: Sebastian Ohlsson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Degerfors IF · On: Dijan Vukojevic · Off: Arman Taranis
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Mjallby AIF · On: Axel·Noren · Off: Tony Miettinen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Degerfors IF · On: Elias Barsoum · Off: Nahom Girmai
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Mjallby AIF · On: Mads Enggard · Off: Áki Samuelsen
FTFULL TIME Mjallby AIF 1–1 Degerfors IF
FTMjallby AIF 1–1 Degerfors IF · Mjallby AIF win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mjallby AIF win58%

Draw24%

Degerfors IF win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Strandvallen

Referee · Adam Ladeback

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mjallby AIF

3-4-3

35 A. Lundin

33 T. Miettinen

5 A. Iqbal

24 T. Pettersson

25 M. Nielsen

7 V. Gustafson

22 J. Gustavsson

14 V. Granath

10 J. Kjaer

18 J. Bergstrom

23 A. Samuelsen

Coach · Andreas Brannstrom

Substitutes

1 · S. Hansen

3 · M. Agnarsson

4 · A. Noren

26 · I. Hoffmann

2 · L. Svanberg

6 · M. Enggaard

39 · R. Arrhenius

27 · L. Tidstrand

29 · O. Lindberg

Degerfors IF

5-3-2

38 M. Igonen

6 D. Sundgren

3 N. Skuseth

2 A. Faqa

13 G. Yiriyon

16 S. Ohlsson

10 N. Milleskog

8 B. Hussein

22 N. Girmai

17 A. Taranis

14 L. Fritzson

Coach · Henok Goitom

Substitutes

1 · W. Jakobsson

15 · N. Moro

7 · S. Ohlsson

28 · J. Hernandez

18 · S. Diatara

20 · E. Barsoum

23 · R. Dzabic

11 · D. Vukojevic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mjallby AIF

3-4-3

35 A. Lundin

33 T. Miettinen

5 A. Iqbal

24 T. Pettersson

25 M. Nielsen

7 V. Gustafson

22 J. Gustavsson

14 V. Granath

10 J. Kjaer

18 J. Bergstrom

23 A. Samuelsen

Coach · Andreas Brannstrom

Substitutes

1 · S. Hansen

3 · M. Agnarsson

4 · A. Noren

26 · I. Hoffmann

2 · L. Svanberg

6 · M. Enggaard

39 · R. Arrhenius

27 · L. Tidstrand

29 · O. Lindberg

Degerfors IF

5-3-2

38 M. Igonen

6 D. Sundgren

3 N. Skuseth

2 A. Faqa

13 G. Yiriyon

16 S. Ohlsson

10 N. Milleskog

8 B. Hussein

22 N. Girmai

17 A. Taranis

14 L. Fritzson

Coach · Henok Goitom

Substitutes

1 · W. Jakobsson

15 · N. Moro

7 · S. Ohlsson

28 · J. Hernandez

18 · S. Diatara

20 · E. Barsoum

23 · R. Dzabic

11 · D. Vukojevic

Our number · mjallby aif winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

58% The market50%

Us58%

~~Market~~50%

We make Mjallby AIF a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mjallby aif win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mjallby AIF win	58%	50%	+8
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Degerfors IF win	18%	23%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Mjallby AIF or draw	82%	77%	+5
Mjallby AIF clean sheet	42%	–	–
Degerfors IF clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 6.3 2.8 1 12.7 11.1 4.8 2 11.1 9.4 4.1 3 6.5 5.5 2.4 4 2.9 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mjallby AIF down, Degerfors IF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,387 Allsvenskan matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mjallby AIF at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Degerfors IF away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Mjallby AIF, 0.86 for Degerfors IF. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEG 1–4 MJA · DEG 0–1 MJA · MJA 4–1 DEG · DEG 1–2 MJA

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

MJALLBY AIF

LLLDDL0–4 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

DEGERFORS IF

WLLWLL3–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	22	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	22	−3	33
10	Gais	22	+8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	−6	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	−11	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14