Malmo FF v Kalmar FF prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF MALMO FF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Malmo FF win~~61%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.226

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.290

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malmo FF win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Malmo FF 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–17
1′KICK-OFF Malmo FF v Kalmar FF
7′Little has changed for our model: Malmo FF 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 50% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 50% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kalmar FF
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 50% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Malmo FF win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
45′HALF-TIME Malmo FF 0–0 Kalmar FF
46′SECOND HALF Malmo FF 0–0 Kalmar FF
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Malmo FF · On: Sead Hakšabanović · Off: Jovan Milosavljević
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Malmo FF · On: Theodor Lundbergh · Off: Mayckel Lahdo Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Andrej Djuric · Malmo FF
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Malmo FF · On: Anders Christiansen · Off: Mayckel Lahdo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kalmar FF · On: Tobias Lauritsen · Off: Melker Hallberg
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF · Otto Rosengren
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kalmar FF · On: Noah Shamoun · Off: Abdussalam Magashy
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kalmar FF · On: Eskild Dall · Off: vilmer tyren
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Malmo FF 1–1 Kalmar FF · Otto Rosengren
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Malmo FF · On: Theodor Lundbergh · Off: Anton Sebastian Höög
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Malmo FF · On: Emmanuel Ekong · Off: Daniel Gudjohnsen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kalmar FF · On: Sivert Overby · Off: Victor Larsson
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kalmar FF · On: Amara Camara · Off: Marius Soderback
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Emmanuel Ekong · Malmo FF
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Malmo FF · On: Bleon Kurtulus · Off: Otto Rosengren
FTFULL TIME Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF
FTMalmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF · Malmo FF win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Malmo FF win61%

Draw21%

Kalmar FF win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueEleda Stadion

RefereeOscar Johnson

Line-ups

Malmo FF

4-3-3

Kalmar FF

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Malmo FF

Kalmar FF

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
14	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Malmo FF

4-3-3

1 R. Olsen

17 J. Stryger Larsen

5 A. Đurić

44 M. Pålsson

25 Busanello

7 O. Rosengren

37 A. Skogmar

28 J. Milosavljević

45 A. Hoog

32 D. Guðjohnsen

15 M. Lahdo

Coach · G. Helstrup

Substitutes

10 · A. Christiansen

27 · J. Dahlin

11 · E. Ekong

29 · S. Hakšabanović

6 · Y. Karabelyov

4 · B. Kurtulus

47 · Theodor Lundbergh

54 · A. Sundgren

42 · V. Jeppsson

Kalmar FF

4-2-3-1

1 S. Brolin

26 M. Ylitolva

39 L. Sætra

4 J. Löfgren

2 V. Larsson

17 C. Gustafsson

5 M. Hallberg

10 M. Söderbäck

21 A. Magashy

24 C. Sagoe

6 V. Tyren

Coach · T. Koskela

Substitutes

3 · S. Øverby

23 · R. Gojani

12 · Z. Råvik

25 · N. Shamoun

9 · M. Stolt

22 · T. Lauritsen

30 · J. Kindberg

19 · E. Dall

13 · Amara Camara

Our number · malmo ff winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

61% The market56%

Us61%

~~Market~~56%

We make Malmo FF a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · malmo ff win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malmo FF win	61%	56%	+5
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Kalmar FF win	18%	20%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
Malmo FF or draw	82%	80%	+3
Malmo FF clean sheet	39%	–	–
Kalmar FF clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.3%

0123450 5.4 5.0 2.4 1 10.3 9.9 4.7 2 10.3 9.7 4.7 3 6.9 6.5 3.1 4 3.5 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malmo FF down, Kalmar FF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,392 Allsvenskan matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 182 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malmo FF at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kalmar FF away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Malmo FF, 0.96 for Kalmar FF. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KAL 2–2 MAL · KAL 2–2 MAL · MAL 5–0 KAL · KAL 1–0 MAL

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

MALMO FF

WLWDWL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–2

KALMAR FF

LDLLLL0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	+27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	+28	43
4	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
5	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	−5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	−27	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14