Malmo FF v BK Hacken prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Malmo FF 0–1 BK Hacken MALMO FF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Malmo FF win~~50%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malmo FF win at 50%.
1′KICK-OFF Malmo FF v BK Hacken
2′Little has changed for our model: Malmo FF 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–28
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' abdoulaye doumbia · BK Hacken
26′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Busanello · Malmo FF
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' David Seger · BK Hacken
45′12 shots for BK Hacken, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–34–25
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Malmo FF win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Malmo FF 0–0 BK Hacken
45′SECOND HALF Malmo FF 0–0 BK Hacken
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Malmo FF · On: Anders Christiansen · Off: Anton Sebastian Höög
50′We said Malmo FF at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–37–25
51′We said Malmo FF at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Malmo FF 0–1 BK Hacken
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Malmo FF win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' BK Hacken win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Malmo FF win 13%)
53′BK Hacken ahead on 52′ through adrian svanback. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Malmo FF · On: Diego García · Off: Daniel Gudjohnsen
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Malmo FF win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
60′We said Malmo FF at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Adam Lundqvist · BK Hacken
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Malmo FF · On: Bleon Kurtulus · Off: Stian Gregersen
73′We said Malmo FF at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' BK Hacken · On: Simen Hestnes · Off: David Seger
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jens Stryger Larsen · Malmo FF
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' BK Hacken · On: Wilson Elliot Lindberg Uhrström · Off: Mikkel Rygaard Jensen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Malmo FF · On: A. Sundgren · Off: Jens Stryger Larsen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Malmo FF · On: Emmanuel Ekong · Off: Theodor Lundbergh
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Malmo FF win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' BK Hacken · On: Leo Väisänen · Off: Gustav Lindgren
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' BK Hacken · On: Christ Ivan Wawa · Off: adrian svanback
95′0–1 at the end. Our 50% on Malmo FF misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Malmo FF 0–1 BK Hacken
FTMalmo FF 0–1 BK Hacken · Malmo FF win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malmo FF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malmo FF 50%, draw 22%, BK Hacken 28%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Malmo FF v BK HackenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Malmo FF win50%

Draw22%

BK Hacken win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 24

VenueEleda Stadion

RefereeGlenn Nyberg

Line-ups

Malmo FF

4-3-3

BK Hacken

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malmo FF

BK Hacken

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 11 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	+5	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Malmo FF

4-3-3

1 R. Olsen

17 J. Stryger Larsen

2 S. Gregersen

44 M. Pålsson

25 Busanello

7 O. Rosengren

37 A. Skogmar

47 Theodor Lundbergh

45 A. Hoog

32 D. Guðjohnsen

29 S. Hakšabanović

Coach · G. Helstrup

Substitutes

10 · A. Christiansen

27 · J. Dahlin

11 · E. Ekong

9 · Diego García

6 · Y. Karabelyov

4 · B. Kurtulus

53 · Tarik Karic

54 · A. Sundgren

42 · V. Jeppsson

BK Hacken

4-2-3-1

99 E. Berisha

5 B. Wembangomo

13 H. Hilvenius

22 F. Helander

21 A. Lundkvist

6 A. Doumbia

19 D. Seger

20 A. Svanbäck

10 M. Rygaard

11 Julius Lindberg

9 G. Lindgren

Coach · J. Gustafsson

Substitutes

18 · W. Uhrström

1 · A. Linde

23 · O. Samuelsson

15 · L. Väisänen

27 · C. Wawa

32 · H. Ibrahim

8 · S. Hestnes

14 · M. Haaland

7 · M. Agger

Our number · malmo ff winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market36%

Us50%

~~Market~~36%

We make Malmo FF a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malmo FF v BK Hacken~~1.90 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 39~~6 v 5

~~The market · Malmo FF win~~36% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malmo FF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malmo FF win	50%	36%	+14
Draw	22%	26%	−4
BK Hacken win	28%	38%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Malmo FF or draw	72%	62%	+10
Malmo FF clean sheet	26%	–	–
BK Hacken clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 5.2 3.6 1 7.2 9.8 6.7 3.1 2 6.8 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.3 5.8 4.0 4 2.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malmo FF down, BK Hacken across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,396 Allsvenskan matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malmo FF at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). BK Hacken away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Malmo FF, 1.37 for BK Hacken. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 15:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BKH 3–2 MAL · BKH 1–1 MAL · MAL 3–0 BKH · MAL 0–0 BKH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 21 Aug

MALMO FF

LWDWLW0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

BK HACKEN

WLDDWW3–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	23	+28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	+13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	+5	36
7	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
8	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
9	AIK Stockholm	24	−4	34
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	−16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	−27	15
16	Halmstad	23	−28	14