Kalmar FF v IF Brommapojkarna prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Kalmar FF 0–3 IF Brommapojkarna KALMAR FF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kalmar FF win~~41%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.649

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.943

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kalmar FF win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kalmar FF 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Kalmar FF v IF Brommapojkarna
21′We said Kalmar FF at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–62
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Kalmar FF 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Kalmar FF win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' IF Brommapojkarna win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kalmar FF win 38%)
22′IF Brommapojkarna score on 21′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–62
30′We said Kalmar FF at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–63
31′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Kalmar FF · On: Robert Gojani · Off: Melker Hallberg
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kalmar FF win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′SECOND HALF Kalmar FF 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Kalmar FF 1–1 IF Brommapojkarna
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Kalmar FF win: 41% at kick-off, 33% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was IF Brommapojkarna win 67%)
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Kalmar FF
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Kalmar FF win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' IF Brommapojkarna win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 38%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kalmar FF · On: Alexander Almqvist · Off: Marius Soderback
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kalmar FF · On: Sivert Overby · Off: Victor Larsson
47′HALF-TIME Kalmar FF 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna
50′We said Kalmar FF at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Lukas Björklund · IF Brommapojkarna
67′We said Kalmar FF at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
73′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kalmar FF · On: Kasper Paananen · Off: Abdussalam Magashy
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Kaare Barslund · Off: Lukas Björklund
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kalmar FF · On: Eskild Dall · Off: vilmer tyren
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Pavle Vagic · Off: Oskar Nils Cotton
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Kalmar FF win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Kalmar FF 0–2 IF Brommapojkarna
85′IF Brommapojkarna ahead on 83′ through Wilmer Odefalk. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Kalmar FF 0–3 IF Brommapojkarna
88′Wilmer Odefalk scores for IF Brommapojkarna on 86′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Carl Aurell · Off: Rasmus Örqvist
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Luka Petrović · Off: Mads Hansen
92′0–3 at the end. Our 41% on Kalmar FF misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Rasmus Bergvall · Off: Anton Kurochkin
FTFULL TIME Kalmar FF 0–3 IF Brommapojkarna
FTKalmar FF 0–3 IF Brommapojkarna · Kalmar FF win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kalmar FF are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalmar FF 41%, draw 24%, IF Brommapojkarna 35%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Kalmar FF v IF BrommapojkarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kalmar FF win41%

Draw24%

IF Brommapojkarna win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 25

VenueGuldfågeln Arena

RefereeKristoffer Karlsson

Line-ups

Kalmar FF

4-4-2

IF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalmar FF

IF Brommapojkarna

5Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 16 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kalmar FF

4-4-2

1 S. Brolin

26 M. Ylitolva

39 L. Sætra

4 J. Löfgren

2 V. Larsson

10 M. Söderbäck

17 C. Gustafsson

5 M. Hallberg

24 C. Sagoe

6 V. Tyren

21 A. Magashy

Coach · T. Koskela

Substitutes

20 · A. Almqvist

19 · E. Dall

30 · J. Kindberg

22 · T. Lauritsen

3 · S. Øverby

11 · K. Paananen

23 · R. Gojani

9 · M. Stolt

IF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2

25 D. Blažević

4 O. Cotton

23 J. Simpson

3 A. Troelsen

6 O. Zandén

11 R. Örqvist

21 S. Strand

20 W. Odefalk

17 A. Kurochkin

9 M. Hansen

30 L. Björklund

Coach · U. Kristiansson

Substitutes

12 · B. Amole

35 · Carl Aurell

27 · K. Barslund

22 · R. Bergvall

24 · W. Derbali

40 · J. Lacayo

7 · O. Okeke

2 · P. Vagić

16 · Luka Petrovic

Our number · kalmar ff winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

41% The market53%

Us41%

~~Market~~53%

We make Kalmar FF a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalmar FF v IF Brommapojkarna~~1.54 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 30~~13 v 11

~~The market · Kalmar FF win~~53% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kalmar FF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalmar FF win	41%	53%	−12
Draw	24%	25%	−1
IF Brommapojkarna win	35%	22%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Kalmar FF or draw	65%	78%	−13
Kalmar FF clean sheet	25%	–	–
IF Brommapojkarna clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 7.5 5.2 2.5 1 8.2 11.3 7.9 3.7 2 6.2 8.6 6.0 2.8 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalmar FF down, IF Brommapojkarna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,404 Allsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kalmar FF at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). IF Brommapojkarna away: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Kalmar FF, 1.40 for IF Brommapojkarna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 16:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~IFB 1–0 KAL · IFB 1–2 KAL · KAL 0–1 IFB · IFB 2–3 KAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

KALMAR FF

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA

LWLLWL0–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 6–5 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	24	+25	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	24	+13	42
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
9	AIK Stockholm	24	−4	34
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	24	−16	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17