Kalmar FF v Gais prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kalmar FFDrawGais

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gais 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gais are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalmar FF 29%, draw 27%, Gais 43%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Kalmar FF v GaisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kalmar FF win29%

Draw27%

Gais win43%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueGuldfågeln Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalmar FF

Gais

5Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gais	24	+5	30
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gais winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Gais a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalmar FF v Gais~~1.05 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 30~~13 v 10

~~The market · Gais win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gais win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalmar FF win	29%	29%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Gais win	43%	43%	0
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Kalmar FF or draw	57%	57%	0
Kalmar FF clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gais clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.3 12.3 8.2 3.7 1 9.6 12.7 8.5 3.9 2 5.0 6.7 4.5 2.0 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalmar FF down, Gais across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kalmar FF at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gais away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Kalmar FF, 1.35 for Gais. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GAI 3–0 KAL · GAI 1–1 KAL · KAL 2–3 GAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 31 Aug

KALMAR FF

LLLLWL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

GAIS

WDLWLL4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17