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IFK Goteborg v Vasteras SK FK

IFK Goteborg

1–0Full time

Vasteras SK FK

Allsvenskan · FRI 9 OCT · Gamla Ullevi

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

IFK Goteborg 1–0 Vasteras SK FK IFK GOTEBORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IFK Goteborg win~~45%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.462

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IFK Goteborg win at 45%.
28′IFK Goteborg ahead on 9′ through Noah Tolf. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–9
30′IFK Goteborg ahead on 9′ through Noah Tolf. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' IFK Goteborg win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
31′We published IFK Goteborg at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′We published IFK Goteborg at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–8
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–8
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
45′HALF-TIME IFK Goteborg 1–0 Vasteras SK FK
45′SECOND HALF IFK Goteborg 1–0 Vasteras SK FK
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' jonathan karlsson · Vasteras SK FK
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vasteras SK FK · On: karl gunnarsson · Off: Mattias Hellisdal
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vasteras SK FK · On: Abdelrahman Saidi · Off: Bonaventure Lendambi
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' oliver mansson · IFK Goteborg
88′SUBSTITUTION · 72' IFK Goteborg · On: Kolbeinn Thordarson · Off: Nino Žugelj
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vasteras SK FK · On: Jonathan Ring · Off: jens magnusson
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vasteras SK FK · On: Marcus Baggesen · Off: jonathan karlsson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Vasteras SK FK · On: Frédéric Nsabiyumva · Off: Jack Tagesson
96′🟥 RED CARD · 96' IFK Goteborg
98′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Elis Jager · Vasteras SK FK
99′🟨 YELLOW · 99' karl gunnarsson · Vasteras SK FK
100′🟨 YELLOW · 99' karl gunnarsson · Vasteras SK FK
100′PENALTY MISSED · 99' Sam Larsson · IFK Goteborg
FTFULL TIME IFK Goteborg 1–0 Vasteras SK FK
FTIFK Goteborg 1–0 Vasteras SK FK · IFK Goteborg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

IFK Goteborg win45%

Draw25%

Vasteras SK FK win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Gamla Ullevi

Referee · Richard Sundell

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg

4-2-3-1

12 V. Andersson

4 K. Ackermann

5 J. Bager

26 E. Fasth

22 N. Tolf

24 O. Mansson

15 D. Kruse

11 N. Zugelj

8 S. Larsson

14 T. Heintz

7 A. Simmelhack

Coach · Joachim Bjorklund

Substitutes

25 · E. Bishesari

20 · G. Ersoy

28 · I. Seidu

23 · K. Thordarson

21 · L. Radakovic

9 · M. Fenger

27 · A. Boren

30 · T. Coimbra

35 · N. Lunden

Vasteras SK FK

3-4-3

34 E. Jager

2 H. Magnusson

4 P. Bonde

24 J. Tagesson

11 S. Gefvert

30 M. Hellisdal

8 M. Diagne

15 J. Karlsson

19 J. Magnusson

16 B. Lendambi

17 T. Axel

Coach · Alexander Rubin

Substitutes

1 · A. Fagerstrom

18 · F. Nsabiyumva

21 · V. Wernersson

23 · P. Amoran

3 · M. Baggesen

10 · J. Ring

5 · K. Gunnarsson

20 · M. Ljungqvist

7 · A. Boudah

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg

4-2-3-1

12 V. Andersson

4 K. Ackermann

5 J. Bager

26 E. Fasth

22 N. Tolf

24 O. Mansson

15 D. Kruse

11 N. Zugelj

8 S. Larsson

14 T. Heintz

7 A. Simmelhack

Coach · Joachim Bjorklund

Substitutes

25 · E. Bishesari

20 · G. Ersoy

28 · I. Seidu

23 · K. Thordarson

21 · L. Radakovic

9 · M. Fenger

27 · A. Boren

30 · T. Coimbra

35 · N. Lunden

Vasteras SK FK

3-4-3

34 E. Jager

2 H. Magnusson

4 P. Bonde

24 J. Tagesson

11 S. Gefvert

30 M. Hellisdal

8 M. Diagne

15 J. Karlsson

19 J. Magnusson

16 B. Lendambi

17 T. Axel

Coach · Alexander Rubin

Substitutes

1 · A. Fagerstrom

18 · F. Nsabiyumva

21 · V. Wernersson

23 · P. Amoran

3 · M. Baggesen

10 · J. Ring

5 · K. Gunnarsson

20 · M. Ljungqvist

7 · A. Boudah

Our number · ifk goteborg winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

45% The market54%

Us45%

~~Market~~54%

We make IFK Goteborg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IFK Goteborg win	45%	54%	−9
Draw	25%	24%	+2
Vasteras SK FK win	30%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	62%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	41%	−10
IFK Goteborg or draw	70%	77%	−8
IFK Goteborg clean sheet	29%	–	–
Vasteras SK FK clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.5 7.4 4.7 1 9.4 11.8 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 9.0 5.6 2.3 3 3.9 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Goteborg down, Vasteras SK FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,386 Allsvenskan matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IFK Goteborg at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vasteras SK FK away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for IFK Goteborg, 1.24 for Vasteras SK FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VAS 4–5 IFK · VAS 1–1 IFK · IFK 1–1 VAS

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

IFK GOTEBORG

LDWWWW0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

VASTERAS SK FK

LDWLWW0–3 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	22	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	−1	35
7	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
8	AIK Stockholm	22	−3	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	−10	32
10	Gais	22	+8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	−6	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	−11	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg

Vasteras SK FK

Match statistics

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg

Vasteras SK FK

Head to head

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

The table