IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IFK GoteborgDrawDjurgardens IF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Djurgardens IF 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Djurgardens IF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IFK Goteborg 27%, draw 25%, Djurgardens IF 48%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

IFK Goteborg win27%

Draw25%

Djurgardens IF win48%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueGamla Ullevi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IFK Goteborg

Djurgardens IF

11Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · djurgardens if winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:25 · locked at kick-off

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Djurgardens IF a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF~~1.14 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 48~~9 v 2

~~The market · Djurgardens IF win~~52% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Djurgardens IF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IFK Goteborg win	27%	24%	+3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Djurgardens IF win	48%	52%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
IFK Goteborg or draw	52%	48%	+4
IFK Goteborg clean sheet	20%	–	–
Djurgardens IF clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 10.3 8.3 4.5 1 7.3 11.6 9.3 5.0 2.1 2 4.2 6.6 5.3 2.8 3 2.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Goteborg down, Djurgardens IF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IFK Goteborg at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for IFK Goteborg, 1.61 for Djurgardens IF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DJU 6–0 IFK · DJU 0–0 IFK · IFK 1–2 DJU · DJU 3–4 IFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug

IFK GOTEBORG

WWWWWD1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

DJURGARDENS IF

WWLWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	−4	33
11	Gais	24	+5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	−18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	−25	19
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17