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IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF
IF Elfsborg
Malmo FFAllsvenskan · FRI 23 OCT · Borås Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said IF Elfsborg win at 40%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: IF Elfsborg was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
- 1′KICK-OFF IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was IF Elfsborg win 35%)
- 45′SECOND HALF IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Malmo FF
- 46′HALF-TIME IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Malmo FF · On: Anders Christiansen · Off: Sead Hakšabanović
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' IF Elfsborg win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–44–27
- 58′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–26
- 66′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' IF Elfsborg · On: Ari Sigurpalsson · Off: Arbër Zeneli
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' IF Elfsborg · On: Simon Hedlund · Off: Simon Olsson
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Malmo FF · On: Daniel Gudjohnsen · Off: Diego García
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Malmo FF · On: Emmanuel Ekong · Off: Otto Rosengren
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' IF Elfsborg win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 74′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Thomas Isherwood · IF Elfsborg
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Anders Christiansen · Malmo FF
- 79′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' IF Elfsborg · On: Marcus Rohdén · Off: Julius Beck
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' IF Elfsborg · On: Sebastian Holmen · Off: Rasmus Wikström
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Malmo FF · On: Viggo Jeppsson · Off: Theodor Lundbergh
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' IF Elfsborg win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 84′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sebastian Holmen · IF Elfsborg
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' IF Elfsborg · On: Taylor Silverholt · Off: Momoh Ibrahim Kamara
- 91′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 94′Full time, 0–0. We called IF Elfsborg at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Malmo FF · On: Malte Vilhelm Frejd Pålsson · Off: Stian Gregersen
- FTFULL TIME IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF
- FTIF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF · IF Elfsborg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
IF Elfsborg are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: IF Elfsborg 40%, draw 25%, Malmo FF 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
IF Elfsborg win40%
Malmo FF win35%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00
RoundMatchday 25
VenueBorås Arena
RefereeGranit Maqedonci
Match timeline
All events
IF ElfsborgMIN
Malmo FFEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
IF Elfsborg
4-2-3-1
Malmo FF
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
IF Elfsborg
Malmo FF
Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan
Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
IF Elfsborg
4-2-3-1
31 I. Pettersson
16 A. Jensen
6 R. Wikström
4 T. Isherwood
23 N. Hult
18 J. Magnússon
10 S. Olsson
29 M. Kamara
19 J. Beck
9 A. Zeneli
21 L. Östman
Coach · Björn Hamberg
Substitutes
3 · J. Esenga
12 · T. Sander
5 · O. Nordvall
7 · M. Rohdén
25 · A. Sigurpálsson
11 · T. Silverholt
15 · S. Hedlund
17 · P. Frick
8 · S. Holmén
Malmo FF
4-3-3
1 R. Olsen
17 J. Stryger Larsen
5 A. Đurić
2 S. Gregersen
25 Busanello
37 A. Skogmar
7 O. Rosengren
47 Theodor Lundbergh
28 J. Milosavljević
9 Diego García
29 S. Hakšabanović
Coach · G. Helstrup
Substitutes
27 · J. Dahlin
6 · Y. Karabelyov
11 · E. Ekong
44 · M. Pålsson
32 · D. Guðjohnsen
42 · V. Jeppsson
4 · B. Kurtulus
10 · A. Christiansen
54 · amadeus sundgren
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
IF Elfsborg
4-2-3-1
31 I. Pettersson
16 A. Jensen
6 R. Wikström
4 T. Isherwood
23 N. Hult
18 J. Magnússon
10 S. Olsson
29 M. Kamara
19 J. Beck
9 A. Zeneli
21 L. Östman
Coach · Björn Hamberg
Substitutes
3 · J. Esenga
12 · T. Sander
5 · O. Nordvall
7 · M. Rohdén
25 · A. Sigurpálsson
11 · T. Silverholt
15 · S. Hedlund
17 · P. Frick
8 · S. Holmén
Malmo FF
4-3-3
1 R. Olsen
17 J. Stryger Larsen
5 A. Đurić
2 S. Gregersen
25 Busanello
37 A. Skogmar
7 O. Rosengren
47 Theodor Lundbergh
28 J. Milosavljević
9 Diego García
29 S. Hakšabanović
Coach · G. Helstrup
Substitutes
27 · J. Dahlin
6 · Y. Karabelyov
11 · E. Ekong
44 · M. Pålsson
32 · D. Guðjohnsen
42 · V. Jeppsson
4 · B. Kurtulus
10 · A. Christiansen
54 · amadeus sundgren
We make IF Elfsborg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg win | 40% | 46% | −6 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Malmo FF win | 35% | 28% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| IF Elfsborg or draw | 65% | 72% | −7 |
| IF Elfsborg clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Malmo FF clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug
IF ELFSBORG
MALMO FF
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 24 | +25 | 55 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 24 | +29 | 47 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 24 | +29 | 46 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 24 | +13 | 42 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 24 | +13 | 41 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 24 | −1 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 24 | +4 | 36 |
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 24 | −9 | 36 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 24 | −4 | 34 |
| 10 | Gais | 24 | +5 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 24 | −7 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 24 | −12 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 24 | −15 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 24 | −16 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 24 | −25 | 18 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 24 | −29 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Sirius
Djurgardens IF
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Vasteras SK FK
IFK Goteborg
AIK Stockholm
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad