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Model 1.2

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IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF

IF Elfsborg
0–0Full time
Malmo FF

Allsvenskan · FRI 23 OCT · Borås Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF IF ELFSBORG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said IF Elfsborg win40%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.854
The market’s Brier score0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said IF Elfsborg win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: IF Elfsborg was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF
  4. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was IF Elfsborg win 35%)
  5. 45′SECOND HALF IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF
  6. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Malmo FF
  7. 46′HALF-TIME IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF
  8. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Malmo FF · On: Anders Christiansen · Off: Sead Hakšabanović
  9. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' IF Elfsborg win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  10. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–44–27
  11. 58′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–26
  12. 66′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
  13. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' IF Elfsborg · On: Ari Sigurpalsson · Off: Arbër Zeneli
  14. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' IF Elfsborg · On: Simon Hedlund · Off: Simon Olsson
  15. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Malmo FF · On: Daniel Gudjohnsen · Off: Diego García
  16. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Malmo FF · On: Emmanuel Ekong · Off: Otto Rosengren
  17. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' IF Elfsborg win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  18. 74′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
  19. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Thomas Isherwood · IF Elfsborg
  20. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Anders Christiansen · Malmo FF
  21. 79′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
  22. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' IF Elfsborg · On: Marcus Rohdén · Off: Julius Beck
  23. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' IF Elfsborg · On: Sebastian Holmen · Off: Rasmus Wikström
  24. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Malmo FF · On: Viggo Jeppsson · Off: Theodor Lundbergh
  25. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' IF Elfsborg win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  26. 84′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  27. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sebastian Holmen · IF Elfsborg
  28. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' IF Elfsborg · On: Taylor Silverholt · Off: Momoh Ibrahim Kamara
  29. 91′We said IF Elfsborg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  30. 94′Full time, 0–0. We called IF Elfsborg at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  31. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Malmo FF · On: Malte Vilhelm Frejd Pålsson · Off: Stian Gregersen
  32. FTFULL TIME IF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF
  33. FTIF Elfsborg 0–0 Malmo FF · IF Elfsborg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

IF Elfsborg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IF Elfsborg 40%, draw 25%, Malmo FF 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on IF Elfsborg v Malmo FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

IF Elfsborg win40%
Draw25%
Malmo FF win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueBorås Arena

RefereeGranit Maqedonci

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

Malmo FF

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IF Elfsborg

Malmo FF

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5IF Elfsborg24+1341
7Malmo FF24+436

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

31 I. Pettersson

16 A. Jensen

6 R. Wikström

4 T. Isherwood

23 N. Hult

18 J. Magnússon

10 S. Olsson

29 M. Kamara

19 J. Beck

9 A. Zeneli

21 L. Östman

Coach · Björn Hamberg

Substitutes

3 · J. Esenga

12 · T. Sander

5 · O. Nordvall

7 · M. Rohdén

25 · A. Sigurpálsson

11 · T. Silverholt

15 · S. Hedlund

17 · P. Frick

8 · S. Holmén

Malmo FF

4-3-3

1 R. Olsen

17 J. Stryger Larsen

5 A. Đurić

2 S. Gregersen

25 Busanello

37 A. Skogmar

7 O. Rosengren

47 Theodor Lundbergh

28 J. Milosavljević

9 Diego García

29 S. Hakšabanović

Coach · G. Helstrup

Substitutes

27 · J. Dahlin

6 · Y. Karabelyov

11 · E. Ekong

44 · M. Pålsson

32 · D. Guðjohnsen

42 · V. Jeppsson

4 · B. Kurtulus

10 · A. Christiansen

54 · amadeus sundgren

Our number · if elfsborg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
40% The market46%
Us40%
Market46%

We make IF Elfsborg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF1.50 – 1.38
Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 41 v 365 v 7
The market · IF Elfsborg win46% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:47
Our probability · IF Elfsborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
IF Elfsborg win40%46%−6
Draw25%26%−1
Malmo FF win35%28%+7
Over 2.5 goals55%56%−1
Both teams to score57%59%−2
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
IF Elfsborg or draw65%72%−7
IF Elfsborg clean sheet26%––
Malmo FF clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.7 7.9 5.4 2.5 1 8.6 11.4 7.9 3.7 2 6.3 8.6 5.9 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+IF Elfsborg down, Malmo FF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsMAL 1–2 IFE · IFE 2–2 MAL · MAL 2–1 IFE · MAL 0–0 IFE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

IF ELFSBORG

WLWWWD2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

MALMO FF

WDWLWL1–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sirius24+2555
2Djurgardens IF24+2947
3Hammarby FF24+2946
4BK Hacken24+1342
5IF Elfsborg24+1341
6Vasteras SK FK24−138
7Malmo FF24+436
8IFK Goteborg24−936
9AIK Stockholm24−434
10Gais24+530
11IF Brommapojkarna24−730
12Mjallby AIF24−1223
13Kalmar FF24−1522
14Degerfors IF24−1620
15Orgryte IS24−2518
16Halmstad24−2914

The competition's standings before kick-off.