IF Elfsborg v Halmstad prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

IF Elfsborg 4–0 Halmstad IF ELFSBORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IF Elfsborg win~~63%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.212

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.129

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IF Elfsborg win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: IF Elfsborg was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–15
1′KICK-OFF IF Elfsborg v Halmstad
4′Momoh Ibrahim Kamara scores for IF Elfsborg on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' IF Elfsborg 1–0 Halmstad
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
5′Momoh Ibrahim Kamara scores for IF Elfsborg on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
6′We published IF Elfsborg at 63%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–4
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
7′Momoh Ibrahim Kamara scores for IF Elfsborg on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–4
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
8′We published IF Elfsborg at 63%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–4
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–3
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' IF Elfsborg 2–0 Halmstad · Momoh Ibrahim Kamara
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' IF Elfsborg 2–0 Halmstad · Pascal Gregor
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' IF Elfsborg win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME IF Elfsborg 2–0 Halmstad
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Halmstad · On: Marvin Illary · Off: Omar Faraj
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Halmstad · On: Ajdin Zeljkovic · Off: Ludvig Arvidsson
46′SECOND HALF IF Elfsborg 2–0 Halmstad
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Gabriel Wallentin · Halmstad
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' IF Elfsborg 3–0 Halmstad · Pascal Gregor
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' IF Elfsborg 3–0 Halmstad · Leo Hakan Ostman
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' IF Elfsborg · On: Simon Hedlund · Off: Ari Sigurpalsson Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' IF Elfsborg · On: Ossian nordvall · Off: Arbër Zeneli Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' IF Elfsborg · On: Sebastian Holmen · Off: Rasmus Wikström
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' IF Elfsborg · On: Sebastian Holmen · Off: Rasmus Wikström
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Halmstad · On: Oliver Kapsimalis · Off: Rami Kaib
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' IF Elfsborg · On: Simon Olsson · Off: Julius Beck
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' IF Elfsborg 4–0 Halmstad · Leo Hakan Ostman
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' IF Elfsborg 4–0 Halmstad · Leo Hakan Ostman
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Halmstad · On: Niilo Mäenpää · Off: Tom Trybull
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Halmstad · On: Malte Persson · Off: Rocco Ascone
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' IF Elfsborg · On: Jonathan Esenga · Off: Niklas Hult
FTFULL TIME IF Elfsborg 4–0 Halmstad
FTIF Elfsborg 4–0 Halmstad · IF Elfsborg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

IF Elfsborg win63%

Draw22%

Halmstad win16%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueBorås Arena

RefereeFredrik Klitte

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

Halmstad

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

IF Elfsborg

Halmstad

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

31 I. Pettersson

16 A. Jensen

6 R. Wikström

4 T. Isherwood

23 N. Hult

18 J. Magnússon

19 J. Beck

25 A. Sigurpálsson

29 M. Kamara

9 A. Zeneli

21 L. Östman

Coach · Björn Hamberg

Substitutes

2 · Viggo Elfstrom

3 · J. Esenga

15 · S. Hedlund

8 · S. Holmén

22 · D. Krasniqi

5 · O. Nordvall

10 · S. Olsson

12 · T. Sander

11 · T. Silverholt

Halmstad

4-4-2

1 T. Rönning

17 A. Boman

5 P. Gregor

3 G. Wallentin

24 R. Kaib

11 L. Arvidsson

6 J. Allansson

28 T. Trybull

14 H. Carneil

27 R. Ascone

9 O. Faraj

Coach · S. Baxter

Substitutes

22 · Oliver Kapsimalis

8 · N. Mäenpää

18 · Malte Persson

19 · M. Illary

16 · E. Tõugjas

23 · A. Zeljkovic

25 · A. Damnjanovic Nilsson

35 · A. Wihed

4 · F. Schyberg

Our number · if elfsborg winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

63% The market71%

Us63%

~~Market~~71%

We make IF Elfsborg a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · if elfsborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 70% to 71% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IF Elfsborg win	63%	71%	−8
Draw	22%	18%	+4
Halmstad win	16%	11%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	81%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	40%	−11
IF Elfsborg or draw	84%	89%	−5
IF Elfsborg clean sheet	45%	–	–
Halmstad clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 6.9 5.4 2.3 1 12.6 10.2 4.2 2 11.9 9.5 3.9 3 7.5 6.0 2.4 4 3.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IF Elfsborg down, Halmstad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,392 Allsvenskan matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 182 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IF Elfsborg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Halmstad away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for IF Elfsborg, 0.81 for Halmstad. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HAL 1–1 IFE · IFE 1–2 HAL · HAL 1–4 IFE · HAL 0–1 IFE

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

IF ELFSBORG

WDWLWW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

HALMSTAD

LDWLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	+27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	+28	43
4	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
5	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	−5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	−27	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14