IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

IF Brommapojkarna 0–2 Djurgardens IF DJURGARDENS IF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Djurgardens IF win~~52%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.207

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Djurgardens IF win at 52%.
2′Much as we predicted: Djurgardens IF was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
2′KICK-OFF IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF
9′We published Djurgardens IF at 52%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 10–15–75
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' IF Brommapojkarna 0–1 Djurgardens IF
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Djurgardens IF win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
10′Djurgardens IF ahead on 9′ through Christos Almyras. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–15–75
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–17–76
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Simon Strand · IF Brommapojkarna
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Rasmus Bergvall · IF Brommapojkarna
45′SECOND HALF IF Brommapojkarna 0–1 Djurgardens IF
46′HALF-TIME IF Brommapojkarna 0–1 Djurgardens IF
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Djurgardens IF · On: Patric Aslund · Off: Christos Almyras
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Djurgardens IF · On: Oskar Fallenius · Off: Alexander Andersson
60′We published Djurgardens IF at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Djurgardens IF win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Obilor Okeke · Off: Anton Kurochkin
73′We published Djurgardens IF at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
74′We published Djurgardens IF at 52%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' IF Brommapojkarna 0–2 Djurgardens IF
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Djurgardens IF win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
76′Kristian Stromland Lien scores for Djurgardens IF on 75′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Djurgardens IF · On: Peter Langhoff · Off: Bo Åsulv Hegland
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Djurgardens IF · On: Charlie Rosenquist · Off: Kristian Stromland Lien
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Kaare Barslund · Off: Wilmer Odefalk
82′We published Djurgardens IF at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Luka Petrović · Off: Oliver Berg
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Lukas Björklund · Off: Oskar Nils Cotton
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Jordan simpson · IF Brommapojkarna
92′Full time, 0–2. We called Djurgardens IF at 52% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME IF Brommapojkarna 0–2 Djurgardens IF
FTIF Brommapojkarna 0–2 Djurgardens IF · Djurgardens IF win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Djurgardens IF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IF Brommapojkarna 25%, draw 23%, Djurgardens IF 52%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

IF Brommapojkarna win25%

Draw23%

Djurgardens IF win52%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueGrimsta IP

RefereeVictor Wolf

Line-ups

IF Brommapojkarna

5-4-1

Djurgardens IF

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IF Brommapojkarna

Djurgardens IF

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 11 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Djurgardens IF	23	+27	44
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	−5	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IF Brommapojkarna

5-4-1

1 L. Cavallius

22 R. Bergvall

4 O. Cotton

23 J. Simpson

3 A. Troelsen

6 O. Zandén

9 M. Hansen

21 S. Strand

20 W. Odefalk

17 A. Kurochkin

10 O. Berg

Coach · U. Kristiansson

Substitutes

35 · Carl Aurell

27 · K. Barslund

30 · L. Björklund

25 · D. Blažević

24 · W. Derbali

7 · O. Okeke

2 · P. Vagić

32 · A. Wahlund

16 · Luka Petrovic

Djurgardens IF

4-2-3-1

35 J. Rinne

18 A. Ståhl

21 M. Marques

4 J. Une-Larsson

2 P. Johansson

13 D. Stensson

20 M. Siltanen

7 Christos Almyras

16 Bo Åsulv Hegland

28 A. Andersson

9 K. Lien

Coach · Jani Honkavaara

Substitutes

10 · Abdul Abdulmalik

14 · C. Rosenquist

27 · S. Ringberg

24 · M. Larsson

6 · P. Langhoff

29 · A. Johansson

11 · O. Fallenius

8 · P. Åslund

30 · Lukas Henrik Jonsson

Our number · djurgardens if winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

52% The market63%

Us52%

~~Market~~63%

We make Djurgardens IF a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF~~1.23 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 30 v 44~~11 v 2

~~The market · Djurgardens IF win~~63% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Djurgardens IF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IF Brommapojkarna win	25%	17%	+8
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Djurgardens IF win	52%	63%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
IF Brommapojkarna or draw	48%	37%	+11
IF Brommapojkarna clean sheet	16%	–	–
Djurgardens IF clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 8.4 7.8 4.9 2.3 1 5.6 10.3 9.5 5.9 2.8 2 3.4 6.3 5.8 3.7 3 2.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IF Brommapojkarna down, Djurgardens IF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Allsvenskan matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Djurgardens IF away: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for IF Brommapojkarna, 1.88 for Djurgardens IF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 17:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DJU 1–2 IFB · DJU 2–0 IFB · DJU 1–0 IFB · IFB 0–1 DJU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA

WLWLLW2–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 6–5

DJURGARDENS IF

WWWWLW4–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	+27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	+28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	+13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	+5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	−5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	−16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	−27	15
16	Halmstad	23	−28	14