IF Brommapojkarna v BK Hacken prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IF BrommapojkarnaDrawBK Hacken

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · BK Hacken 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BK Hacken are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IF Brommapojkarna 35%, draw 22%, BK Hacken 43%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on IF Brommapojkarna v BK HackenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

IF Brommapojkarna win35%

Draw22%

BK Hacken win43%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueGrimsta IP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IF Brommapojkarna

BK Hacken

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bk hacken winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make BK Hacken a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · IF Brommapojkarna v BK Hacken~~1.62 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 30 v 45~~11 v 4

~~The market · BK Hacken win~~50% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BK Hacken win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IF Brommapojkarna win	35%	26%	+9
Draw	22%	25%	−3
BK Hacken win	43%	50%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
IF Brommapojkarna or draw	57%	50%	+7
IF Brommapojkarna clean sheet	16%	–	–
BK Hacken clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 5.9 5.3 3.3 1 5.2 9.3 8.5 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.5 6.8 4.2 3 2.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IF Brommapojkarna down, BK Hacken across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,404 Allsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). BK Hacken away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for IF Brommapojkarna, 1.84 for BK Hacken. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BKH 2–2 IFB · IFB 1–3 BKH · BKH 2–0 IFB · IFB 1–3 BKH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA

WLLWLW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 6–5 · 0–2 · 3–0

BK HACKEN

DDWWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17