Hammarby FF v Sirius prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hammarby FFDrawSirius

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Hammarby FF 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hammarby FF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hammarby FF 57%, draw 21%, Sirius 23%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Hammarby FF v SiriusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hammarby FF win57%

Draw21%

Sirius win23%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 26

Venue3Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hammarby FF

Sirius

11Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hammarby ff winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

57% The market61%

Us57%

~~Market~~61%

We make Hammarby FF a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hammarby FF v Sirius~~2.09 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 55~~3 v 1

~~The market · Hammarby FF win~~61% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hammarby FF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hammarby FF win	57%	61%	−4
Draw	21%	21%	0
Sirius win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Hammarby FF or draw	77%	82%	−5
Hammarby FF clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sirius clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.7 4.6 2.8 1 7.5 9.2 5.7 2.4 2 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.5 3 5.4 6.6 4.1 4 2.9 3.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hammarby FF down, Sirius across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hammarby FF at home: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sirius away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Hammarby FF, 1.24 for Sirius. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIR 2–0 HAM · HAM 2–2 SIR · SIR 3–1 HAM · HAM 3–2 SIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug

HAMMARBY FF

LDWWLW2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

SIRIUS

WWWWDL1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	−4	33
11	Gais	24	+5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	−18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	−25	19
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17