Hammarby FF v Djurgardens IF prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Hammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF HAMMARBY FF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hammarby FF win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.927

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hammarby FF win at 47%.
0′KICK-OFF Hammarby FF v Djurgardens IF
1′Much as we predicted: Hammarby FF was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–29
2′Much as we predicted: Hammarby FF was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–29
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Djurgardens IF
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Victor Eriksson · Hammarby FF
44′We said Hammarby FF at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Hammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Djurgardens IF win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Hammarby FF win 13%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 39% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 39% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Hammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF · Bo Åsulv Hegland
45′SECOND HALF Hammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF
46′45′ and it is 0–1: Bo Åsulv Hegland on the scoresheet for Djurgardens IF. 0–1 · 12–25–63
46′We said Hammarby FF at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
46′HALF-TIME Hammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 39% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Hammarby FF win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Djurgardens IF win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Hammarby FF win 12%)
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Frank Junior Adjei · Hammarby FF
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Amin Boudri · Hammarby FF
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Kristian Stromland Lien · Djurgardens IF
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hammarby FF · On: Oscar Steinke Brånby · Off: Victor Eriksson
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Miro Tenho · Djurgardens IF
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Djurgardens IF · On: Charlie Rosenquist · Off: Patric Aslund
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Djurgardens IF · On: Oskar Fallenius · Off: Jeppe Okkels
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Djurgardens IF · On: Christos Almyras · Off: Bo Åsulv Hegland
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Djurgardens IF · On: Peter Langhoff · Off: Daniel Stensson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hammarby FF · On: Tesfaldet Tekie · Off: Amin Boudri
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Djurgardens IF · On: Mikael Marques · Off: Jacob Une Larsson
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Hammarby FF · On: Suwaibou Kebbeh · Off: Nahir Besara
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hammarby FF · On: Oskar Adam Moczarny · Off: Frank Junior Adjei Corrected
FTFULL TIME Hammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF
FTHammarby FF 0–1 Djurgardens IF · Hammarby FF win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hammarby FF win47%

Draw25%

Djurgardens IF win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Venue3Arena

RefereeGranit Maqedonci

Line-ups

Hammarby FF

4-3-3

Djurgardens IF

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hammarby FF

Djurgardens IF

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hammarby FF

4-3-3

1 W. Hahn

2 H. Skoglund

6 I. Fofana

4 V. Eriksson

3 F. Winther

28 F. Adjei

8 M. Karlsson

9 V. Lind

7 P. Abraham

20 N. Besara

17 A. Boudri

Coach · Kalle Karlsson

Substitutes

27 · F. Jakobsson

24 · W. Renecke

32 · E. Lwampindy-Bofua

31 · O. Steinke

5 · T. Tekie

45 · F. Jakobsson

30 · S. Kebbeh

42 · O. Moczarny

Djurgardens IF

4-2-3-1

35 J. Rinne

18 A. Stahl

5 M. Tenho

4 J. Une

2 P. Johansson

13 D. Stensson

20 M. Siltanen

8 P. Aslund

16 B. Hegland

19 J. Okkels

9 K. Lien

Coach · Jani Honkavaara

Substitutes

30 · L. Jonsson

21 · M. Marques

24 · M. Larsson

7 · C. Almyras

6 · P. Langhoff

28 · A. Andersson

11 · O. Fallenius

10 · A. Abdulmalik

14 · C. Rosenqvist

Our number · hammarby ff winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Hammarby FF a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hammarby ff win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hammarby FF win	47%	53%	−7
Draw	25%	23%	+1
Djurgardens IF win	29%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	61%	−8
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	40%	−9
Hammarby FF or draw	71%	77%	−5
Hammarby FF clean sheet	30%	–	–
Djurgardens IF clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 7.1 4.4 1 9.5 11.6 6.9 2.8 2 7.7 9.2 5.6 2.3 3 4.2 5.0 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hammarby FF down, Djurgardens IF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,390 Allsvenskan matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.91 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hammarby FF at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Djurgardens IF away: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Hammarby FF, 1.21 for Djurgardens IF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.91

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~DJU 1–1 HAM · DJU 3–3 HAM · HAM 2–0 DJU · HAM 2–0 DJU

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

HAMMARBY FF

WWLDWW4–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

DJURGARDENS IF

WWWWWL3–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	−5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14