Halmstad v Malmo FF prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HalmstadDrawMalmo FF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Malmo FF 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malmo FF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Halmstad 20%, draw 24%, Malmo FF 56%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Halmstad v Malmo FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Halmstad win20%

Draw24%

Malmo FF win56%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueOrjans Vall

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Halmstad

Malmo FF

5Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malmo ff winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market57%

Us56%

~~Market~~57%

We make Malmo FF a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Halmstad v Malmo FF~~0.89 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 37~~16 v 7

~~The market · Malmo FF win~~57% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malmo FF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Halmstad win	20%	20%	0
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Malmo FF win	56%	57%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	59%	−12
Both teams to score	47%	58%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	38%	−12
Halmstad or draw	44%	43%	+1
Halmstad clean sheet	19%	–	–
Malmo FF clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.9 13.0 10.8 6.1 2.6 1 6.9 11.3 9.4 5.3 2.2 2 3.1 5.0 4.2 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Halmstad down, Malmo FF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Halmstad at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Malmo FF away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Halmstad, 1.68 for Malmo FF. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAL 5–2 HAL · MAL 2–1 HAL · HAL 0–4 MAL · MAL 3–0 HAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

HALMSTAD

LLWLLW0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1

MALMO FF

DWLWLD0–0 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	−4	33
11	Gais	24	+5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	−18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	−25	19
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17