Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Allsvenskan › Halmstad v Hammarby FF

Back
Sweden flag

Halmstad v Hammarby FF

Halmstad
0–1Full time
Hammarby FF

Allsvenskan · SUN 18 OCT · Orjans Vall

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Halmstad 0–1 Hammarby FF HAMMARBY FF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Hammarby FF win65%
The market said76%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.189
The market’s Brier score0.089

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hammarby FF win at 65%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hammarby FF was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 14–21–65
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Halmstad v Hammarby FF
  4. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
  5. 36′7 shots for Hammarby FF, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 15–32–54
  6. 37′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 15–32–53
  7. 45′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 15–36–49
  8. 45′Hammarby FF have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 15–36–49
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Halmstad 0–0 Hammarby FF
  10. 46′Hammarby FF have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 14–37–49
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Halmstad 0–0 Hammarby FF
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Halmstad · On: Joel Allansson · Off: Aleksander Nilsson
  13. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
  14. 54′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 14–42–44
  15. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 14–43–43
  16. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Rocco Ascone · Halmstad
  17. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Hammarby FF win 41%)
  18. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Tom Trybull · Halmstad
  19. 61′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 13–48–39
  20. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
  21. 67′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 12–55–34
  22. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Halmstad · On: Malte Persson · Off: Ajdin Zeljkovic
  23. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hammarby FF · On: Filip Jakobsson · Off: Frank Junior Adjei Corrected
  24. 71′Hammarby FF have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–60–30
  25. 72′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 10–61–28
  26. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
  27. 76′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 9–68–24
  28. 80′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 7–75–18
  29. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
  30. 83′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 5–82–13
  31. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Halmstad · On: Marvin Illary · Off: Hussein Carneil
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Halmstad · On: Niilo Mäenpää · Off: Rocco Ascone
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hammarby FF · On: Nahir Besara · Off: Paulos Abraham
  34. 87′We said Hammarby FF at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 3–88–9
  35. 91′We published Hammarby FF at 65%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
  36. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
  37. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Halmstad 0–1 Hammarby FF
  38. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Hammarby FF win: 65% at kick-off, 98% now
  39. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Hammarby FF win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  40. 92′90′: Noah Karl Anders Persson on the scoresheet for Hammarby FF, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
  41. FTFULL TIME Halmstad 0–1 Hammarby FF
  42. FTHalmstad 0–1 Hammarby FF · Hammarby FF win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hammarby FF are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Halmstad 14%, draw 21%, Hammarby FF 65%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Halmstad v Hammarby FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Halmstad win14%
Draw21%
Hammarby FF win65%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 24

VenueOrjans Vall

RefereeSars Joakim

Line-ups

Halmstad

4-1-4-1

Hammarby FF

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Halmstad

Hammarby FF

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 11 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Hammarby FF23+2843
16Halmstad23−2814

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Halmstad

4-1-4-1

1 T. Rönning

17 A. Boman

5 P. Gregor

16 E. Tõugjas

24 R. Kaib

28 T. Trybull

11 L. Arvidsson

23 A. Zeljkovic

27 R. Ascone

25 A. Damnjanovic Nilsson

14 H. Carneil

Coach · S. Baxter

Substitutes

6 · J. Allansson

9 · O. Faraj

19 · M. Illary

22 · Oliver Kapsimalis

8 · N. Mäenpää

18 · Malte Persson

4 · F. Schyberg

3 · G. Wallentin

35 · A. Wihed

Hammarby FF

4-3-3

27 F. Jakobsson

16 N. Persson

3 F. Winther

6 I. Fofana

2 E. Skoglund

28 F. Adjei

8 M. Karlsson

5 T. Tekie

26 M. Madjed

7 P. Abraham

9 V. Lind

Coach · H. Rydström

Substitutes

24 · W. Renecke

21 · Sourou Kone

34 · Filip Jakobsson

1 · W. Hahn

20 · N. Besara

45 · Felix Gertell Bjernvall

42 · O. Moczarny

31 · O. Steinke Branby

47 · Hampus Thorsson

Our number · hammarby ff winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:48 · locked at kick-off
65% The market76%
Us65%
Market76%

We make Hammarby FF a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Halmstad v Hammarby FF0.78 – 1.96
Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 22 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 14 v 4316 v 3
The market · Hammarby FF win76% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 15:09
Our probability · Hammarby FF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 65% now. The market has gone from 77% to 76% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Halmstad win14%9%+5
Draw21%15%+6
Hammarby FF win65%76%−11
Over 2.5 goals51%67%−16
Both teams to score46%51%−5
Over 1.5 goals75%84%−9
Over 3.5 goals29%46%−17
Halmstad or draw35%24%+11
Halmstad clean sheet14%––
Hammarby FF clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.7%
0123450 6.7 12.7 12.3 8.1 4.0 1 5.1 9.8 9.4 6.1 3.0 2 2.0 3.8 3.7 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Halmstad down, Hammarby FF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.52 of 9
Both scored4 of 9
Last meetingsHAM 1–1 HAL · HAL 1–0 HAM · HAM 2–0 HAL · HAM 1–0 HAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 22 Aug

HALMSTAD

DWLLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4

HAMMARBY FF

WLDWWL2–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sirius23+2554
2Djurgardens IF24+2947
3Hammarby FF23+2843
4IF Elfsborg23+1340
5BK Hacken23+1239
6Malmo FF23+536
7IFK Goteborg24−936
8Vasteras SK FK23−235
9AIK Stockholm24−434
10Gais23+730
11IF Brommapojkarna24−730
12Mjallby AIF23−1123
13Degerfors IF23−1520
14Kalmar FF23−1619
15Orgryte IS23−2715
16Halmstad23−2814

The competition's standings before kick-off.