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Gais v Sirius

Gais

0–1Full time

Sirius

Allsvenskan · SAT 10 OCT · Gamla Ullevi

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Gais 0–1 Sirius GAIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gais win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.702

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.639

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gais win at 43%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Gais 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
3′KICK-OFF Gais v Sirius
46′8.0 shots for Gais, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–37–28
46′HALF-TIME Gais 0–0 Sirius
46′SECOND HALF Gais 0–0 Sirius
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Gais win: 43% at kick-off, 32% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Gais win 32%)
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sirius · On: Joakim Persson · Off: Zalán Vancsa
59′We said Gais at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
64′Goalless on 64′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–51–22
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gais · On: Samuel Salter · Off: Nikola·Vasic
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gais · On: Christos Gravius · Off: Simon Jørgensen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sirius · On: N. Jönsson · Off: Ake Andersson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sirius · On: Adam Vikman · Off: Victor Svensson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gais · On: Jonas Lindberg · Off: Joackim Aberg
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gais · On: Oscar Pettersson · Off: Melvin Andersson
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' August Wangberg · Gais
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Gais 0–1 Sirius · Isak Bjerkebo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gais · On: Robin Wendin Thomasson · Off: Matteo de Brienne
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sirius · On: Mohamed Soumah · Off: Isak Bjerkebo
FTFULL TIME Gais 0–1 Sirius
FTGais 0–1 Sirius · Gais win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gais win43%

Draw25%

Sirius win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Gamla Ullevi

Referee · Victor Wolf

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gais

4-3-3

1 M. Krasniqi

6 A. Wangberg

4 O. Agren

24 F. Beckman

2 M. de Brienne

10 H. Sletsjoe

7 J. Fagerjord

14 S. Jorgensen

16 M. Andersson

21 N. Vasic

11 R. Niklasson

Coach · Fredrik Holmberg

Substitutes

33 · A. Hermansen

12 · R. Frej

22 · A. Cardaklija

5 · R. Wendin Thomasson

25 · J. Lindberg

31 · C. Gravius

28 · L. Hedlund

32 · O. Pettersson

20 · S. Salter

Sirius

4-2-3-1

34 D. Celic

5 H. Castegren

15 S. Sandberg

4 T. Anker

22 O. Krusnell

10 M. Heier

21 C. Nilden

30 Z. Vancsa

24 V. Svensson

11 I. Bjerkebo

29 A. Andersson

Coach · Andreas Engelmark

Substitutes

1 · I. Diawara

20 · V. Ekstrom

2 · M. Soumah

35 · E. Eld

18 · A. Wikman

8 · M. Nartey

17 · N. Jonsson

25 · O. Adindu

7 · J. Persson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gais

4-3-3

1 M. Krasniqi

6 A. Wangberg

4 O. Agren

24 F. Beckman

2 M. de Brienne

10 H. Sletsjoe

7 J. Fagerjord

14 S. Jorgensen

16 M. Andersson

21 N. Vasic

11 R. Niklasson

Coach · Fredrik Holmberg

Substitutes

33 · A. Hermansen

12 · R. Frej

22 · A. Cardaklija

5 · R. Wendin Thomasson

25 · J. Lindberg

31 · C. Gravius

28 · L. Hedlund

32 · O. Pettersson

20 · S. Salter

Sirius

4-2-3-1

34 D. Celic

5 H. Castegren

15 S. Sandberg

4 T. Anker

22 O. Krusnell

10 M. Heier

21 C. Nilden

30 Z. Vancsa

24 V. Svensson

11 I. Bjerkebo

29 A. Andersson

Coach · Andreas Engelmark

Substitutes

1 · I. Diawara

20 · V. Ekstrom

2 · M. Soumah

35 · E. Eld

18 · A. Wikman

8 · M. Nartey

17 · N. Jonsson

25 · O. Adindu

7 · J. Persson

Our number · gais winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Gais a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gais win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gais win	43%	38%	+5
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sirius win	32%	35%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Gais or draw	68%	65%	+3
Gais clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sirius clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 7.3 4.9 2.2 1 8.5 11.5 7.5 3.4 2 6.8 8.9 5.9 2.6 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gais down, Sirius across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,387 Allsvenskan matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gais at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sirius away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Gais, 1.33 for Sirius. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SIR 2–1 GAI · SIR 3–0 GAI · GAI 2–1 SIR · GAI 2–1 SIR

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

GAIS

LLWDLW0–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

SIRIUS

LLLWWW3–4 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	22	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	22	−3	33
10	Gais	22	+8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	−6	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	−11	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14