Gais v IFK Goteborg prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GaisDrawIFK Goteborg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gais 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gais are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gais 48%, draw 26%, IFK Goteborg 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Gais v IFK GoteborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gais win48%

Draw26%

IFK Goteborg win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueGamla Ullevi

RefereeMohammed Al-Hakim

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gais

IFK Goteborg

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 17 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
11	Gais	24	+5	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gais winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 04:16 · locked at kick-off

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gais a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gais v IFK Goteborg~~1.50 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 30 v 36~~11 v 9

~~The market · Gais win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gais win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gais win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	26%	28%	−2
IFK Goteborg win	26%	32%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Gais or draw	74%	68%	+6
Gais clean sheet	37%	–	–
IFK Goteborg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.3 8.3 4.2 1 12.2 12.1 6.2 2.1 2 9.1 9.0 4.6 3 4.6 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gais down, IFK Goteborg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gais at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Gais, 1.01 for IFK Goteborg. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~IFK 2–2 GAI · GAI 0–1 IFK · IFK 1–1 GAI · IFK 2–0 GAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug

GAIS

WDLWLL4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

IFK GOTEBORG

WWWWWD1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	−4	33
11	Gais	24	+5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	−18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	−25	19
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17