Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Allsvenskan › Djurgardens IF v Orgryte IS

Back
Sweden flag

Djurgardens IF v Orgryte IS

Djurgardens IF
2–2Full time
Orgryte IS

Allsvenskan · SAT 24 OCT · 3Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17
Djurgardens IF 2–2 Orgryte IS DJURGARDENS IF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Djurgardens IF win74%
The market said81%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.278
The market’s Brier score1.424

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Djurgardens IF win at 74%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Djurgardens IF 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 74–15–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Djurgardens IF v Orgryte IS
  4. 7′We said Djurgardens IF at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Djurgardens IF 1–0 Orgryte IS
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Djurgardens IF win: 74% at kick-off, 89% now
  7. 8′A goal for Djurgardens IF on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–3
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Djurgardens IF 1–0 Orgryte IS
  10. 49′HALF-TIME Djurgardens IF 1–0 Orgryte IS
  11. 59′We said Djurgardens IF at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  12. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Djurgardens IF 2–0 Orgryte IS
  13. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Djurgardens IF win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
  14. 62′60′: Bo Åsulv Hegland on the scoresheet for Djurgardens IF, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Djurgardens IF · On: Oskar Fallenius · Off: Patric Aslund
  16. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orgryte IS · On: william hofvander · Off: michael parker Corrected
  17. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orgryte IS · On: Viktor Ekblom · Off: Charlie Vindehall
  18. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orgryte IS · On: Adam Andersson · Off: Daniel Paulson
  19. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Djurgardens IF 2–1 Orgryte IS
  20. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Djurgardens IF win: 74% at kick-off, 89% now
  21. 67′Orgryte IS pull one back on 66′ through william hofvander. 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  22. 70′We said Djurgardens IF at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  23. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Djurgardens IF · On: Peter Langhoff · Off: Daniel Stensson
  24. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Djurgardens IF · On: Christos Almyras · Off: Bo Åsulv Hegland
  25. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Djurgardens IF · On: Charlie Rosenquist · Off: Jeppe Okkels
  26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Djurgardens IF · On: Piotr Johansson · Off: Max Larsson
  27. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Jacob Une Larsson · Djurgardens IF
  28. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Djurgardens IF win: 74% at kick-off, 94% now
  29. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Orgryte IS · On: Marlon Ebietomere · Off: michael parker
  30. 90′We said Djurgardens IF at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–89–3
  31. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Djurgardens IF 2–2 Orgryte IS
  32. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Djurgardens IF win: 74% at kick-off, 8% now
  33. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Djurgardens IF win 97%)
  34. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–91–2
  35. 92′Viktor Ekblom scores for Orgryte IS on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 6–93–2
  36. 93′We said Djurgardens IF at 74%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–1
  37. 93′2–2 at the end. Our 74% on Djurgardens IF misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  38. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Djurgardens IF win: 74% at kick-off, 4% now
  39. FTFULL TIME Djurgardens IF 2–2 Orgryte IS
  40. FTDjurgardens IF 2–2 Orgryte IS · Djurgardens IF win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Djurgardens IF are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Djurgardens IF 74%, draw 15%, Orgryte IS 11%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Djurgardens IF v Orgryte ISBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Djurgardens IF win74%
Draw15%
Orgryte IS win11%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 25

Venue3Arena

RefereeRichard Sundell

Line-ups

Djurgardens IF

4-2-3-1

Orgryte IS

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Djurgardens IF

Orgryte IS

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Djurgardens IF24+2947
15Orgryte IS24−2518

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Djurgardens IF

4-2-3-1

35 J. Rinne

18 A. Ståhl

21 M. Marques

4 J. Une-Larsson

24 M. Larsson

13 D. Stensson

20 M. Siltanen

8 P. Åslund

16 Bo Åsulv Hegland

19 J. Okkels

9 K. Lien

Coach · Jani Honkavaara

Substitutes

10 · Abdul Abdulmalik

7 · Christos Almyras

28 · A. Andersson

11 · O. Fallenius

2 · P. Johansson

6 · P. Langhoff

27 · S. Ringberg

14 · C. Rosenquist

30 · Lukas Henrik Jonsson

Orgryte IS

5-3-2

44 H. Gustafsson

14 D. Paulson

33 S. Lagerlund

6 M. Dyrestam

5 C. Styffe

2 M. Parker

23 O. Parker-Price

7 C. Vindehall

8 B. Laturnus

9 L. Andersson

22 T. Sana

Coach · A. Holmberg

Substitutes

25 · J. Hammar

17 · W. Hofvander

21 · W. Kenndal

34 · A. Rahm

29 · Marlon Ebietomere

32 · Viktor Ekblom

3 · J. Azulay

19 · A. Andreasson

18 · A. Andersson

Our number · djurgardens if winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
74% The market81%
Us74%
Market81%

We make Djurgardens IF a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Djurgardens IF v Orgryte IS2.61 – 0.87
Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 AugW5 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 47 v 182 v 15
The market · Djurgardens IF win81% · ours 74%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:11
Our probability · Djurgardens IF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 75%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Djurgardens IF win74%81%−7
Draw15%12%+3
Orgryte IS win11%7%+4
Over 2.5 goals67%70%−3
Both teams to score53%49%+4
Over 1.5 goals86%86%0
Over 3.5 goals46%50%−4
Djurgardens IF or draw89%93%−4
Djurgardens IF clean sheet42%––
Orgryte IS clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%
0123450 3.2 2.8 1 8.2 7.0 3.1 2 10.4 8.9 3.9 3 9.0 7.6 3.3 4 5.9 5.0 2.2 5 3.2 2.7
under 2% 5% 12%+Djurgardens IF down, Orgryte IS across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting0.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsORG 0–0 DJU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 30 Aug

DJURGARDENS IF

WWWLWW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

ORGRYTE IS

LDLLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 4–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sirius24+2555
2Djurgardens IF24+2947
3Hammarby FF24+2946
4BK Hacken24+1342
5IF Elfsborg25+1342
6Vasteras SK FK25−238
7Malmo FF25+437
8IFK Goteborg24−936
9AIK Stockholm24−434
10Gais24+530
11IF Brommapojkarna24−730
12Mjallby AIF24−1223
13Kalmar FF24−1522
14Degerfors IF24−1620
15Orgryte IS24−2518
16Halmstad25−2817

The competition's standings before kick-off.