Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FK prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Degerfors IFDrawVasteras SK FK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vasteras SK FK 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vasteras SK FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Degerfors IF 33%, draw 26%, Vasteras SK FK 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Degerfors IF win33%

Draw26%

Vasteras SK FK win40%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueStora Valla

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Degerfors IF

Vasteras SK FK

4Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 23 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vasteras sk fk winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:25 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Vasteras SK FK a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FK~~1.21 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 38~~14 v 6

~~The market · Vasteras SK FK win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vasteras SK FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Degerfors IF win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Vasteras SK FK win	40%	37%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Degerfors IF or draw	60%	63%	−3
Degerfors IF clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vasteras SK FK clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.9 10.4 7.0 3.2 1 9.3 12.4 8.4 3.8 2 5.6 7.5 5.1 2.3 3 2.3 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Degerfors IF down, Vasteras SK FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,408 Allsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Degerfors IF at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vasteras SK FK away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Degerfors IF, 1.36 for Vasteras SK FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VAS 2–0 DEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

DEGERFORS IF

WLLDLL2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

VASTERAS SK FK

LWWLWL0–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	+29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	−4	33
11	Gais	24	+5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	−18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	−25	19
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17