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Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF

Degerfors IF
1–2Full time
Kalmar FF

Allsvenskan · MON 19 OCT · Stora Valla

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30
Degerfors IF 1–2 Kalmar FF DEGERFORS IF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Degerfors IF win39%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.648
The market’s Brier score0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Degerfors IF win at 39%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Degerfors IF 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
  4. 2′We said Degerfors IF at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–21–62
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Degerfors IF 0–1 Kalmar FF
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Degerfors IF win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Kalmar FF win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Degerfors IF win 38%)
  8. 3′A goal for Kalmar FF on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–62
  9. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Ahmad Faqa · Degerfors IF
  10. 16′We said Degerfors IF at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
  11. 17′We said Degerfors IF at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  12. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Degerfors IF 0–2 Kalmar FF
  13. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Degerfors IF win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
  14. 18′17′: vilmer tyren on the scoresheet for Kalmar FF, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  15. 41′We said Degerfors IF at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–68
  16. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Degerfors IF 1–2 Kalmar FF
  17. 42′Degerfors IF pull one back on 41′ through Nahom Girmai. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–22–68
  18. 42′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–22–68
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Degerfors IF 1–2 Kalmar FF
  20. 46′HALF-TIME Degerfors IF 1–2 Kalmar FF
  21. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' gideon yaw yiriyon · Degerfors IF
  22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Degerfors IF · On: Karim Boutera · Off: Arman Taranis
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Degerfors IF · On: Samba Diatara · Off: Ahmad Faqa
  24. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Degerfors IF · On: Elias Barsoum · Off: Noel Milleskog
  25. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Miska Ylitolva · Kalmar FF
  26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kalmar FF · On: Robert Gojani · Off: Melker Hallberg Corrected
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kalmar FF · On: Alexander Almqvist · Off: Marius Soderback
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kalmar FF · On: Kasper Paananen · Off: vilmer tyren
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Degerfors IF · On: Ludvig Fritzson · Off: gideon yaw yiriyon
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Degerfors IF · On: Robin Dzabic · Off: Dijan Vukojevic
  31. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kalmar FF · On: Eskild Dall · Off: Charles Sagoe Jr
  32. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kalmar FF · On: Sivert Overby · Off: Abdussalam Magashy
  33. 93′1–2 at the end. Our 39% on Degerfors IF misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  34. FTFULL TIME Degerfors IF 1–2 Kalmar FF
  35. FTDegerfors IF 1–2 Kalmar FF · Degerfors IF win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Degerfors IF just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Degerfors IF 39%, draw 27%, Kalmar FF 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Degerfors IF v Kalmar FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Degerfors IF win39%
Draw27%
Kalmar FF win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueStora Valla

RefereeMohammed Al-Hakim

Line-ups

Degerfors IF

5-3-2

Kalmar FF

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Degerfors IF

Kalmar FF

9Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 12 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Degerfors IF23−1520
14Kalmar FF23−1619

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Degerfors IF

5-3-2

38 M. Igonen

6 D. Sundgren

2 Ahmad Faqa

3 Nikolai Skuseth

13 M. Hamilton

16 S. Ohlsson

10 N. Milleskog

8 B. Hussein

22 N. Girmai Netabay

17 Arman Taranis

11 D. Vukojević

Coach · H. Goitom

Substitutes

9 · K. Boutera

20 · E. Barsoum

18 · S. Diatara

23 · R. Dzabic

14 · L. Fritzson

1 · W. Jakobsson

15 · N. Moro

7 · S. Ohlsson

28 · J. Hernandez

Kalmar FF

4-2-3-1

1 S. Brolin

26 M. Ylitolva

39 L. Sætra

4 J. Löfgren

2 V. Larsson

17 C. Gustafsson

5 M. Hallberg

10 M. Söderbäck

21 A. Magashy

24 C. Sagoe

6 V. Tyren

Coach · T. Koskela

Substitutes

20 · A. Almqvist

19 · E. Dall

22 · T. Lauritsen

3 · S. Øverby

11 · K. Paananen

23 · R. Gojani

25 · N. Shamoun

9 · M. Stolt

30 · J. Kindberg

Our number · degerfors if winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
39% The market32%
Us39%
Market32%

We make Degerfors IF a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF1.28 – 1.20
Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 AugW1 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 20 v 1913 v 14
The market · Degerfors IF win32% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 13 OCT 05:4819 OCT 17:42
Our probability · Degerfors IF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. The market has gone from 35% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Degerfors IF win39%32%+7
Draw27%29%−2
Kalmar FF win35%39%−4
Over 2.5 goals45%46%−1
Both teams to score50%53%−3
Over 1.5 goals70%71%−1
Over 3.5 goals24%27%−3
Degerfors IF or draw65%61%+4
Degerfors IF clean sheet31%––
Kalmar FF clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.5 10.2 6.0 2.4 1 10.9 12.6 7.6 3.1 2 6.9 8.1 4.8 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Degerfors IF down, Kalmar FF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored5 of 7
Last meetingsKAL 2–1 DEG · DEG 1–3 KAL · KAL 2–1 DEG · DEG 2–1 KAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug

DEGERFORS IF

LLWLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

KALMAR FF

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sirius24+2555
2Djurgardens IF24+2947
3Hammarby FF24+2946
4BK Hacken24+1342
5IF Elfsborg24+1341
6Vasteras SK FK24−138
7Malmo FF24+436
8IFK Goteborg24−936
9AIK Stockholm24−434
10Gais24+530
11IF Brommapojkarna24−730
12Mjallby AIF24−1223
13Degerfors IF23−1520
14Kalmar FF23−1619
15Orgryte IS24−2518
16Halmstad24−2914

The competition's standings before kick-off.