BK Hacken v Orgryte IS prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

BK Hacken 3–0 Orgryte IS BK HACKEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BK Hacken win~~66%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.173

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.111

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BK Hacken win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BK Hacken 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–18–16
1′KICK-OFF BK Hacken v Orgryte IS
4′Little has changed for our model: BK Hacken 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–18–16
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Adam Andersson · Orgryte IS
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' BK Hacken 1–0 Orgryte IS
7′We said BK Hacken at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' BK Hacken win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' BK Hacken win: 66% at kick-off, 65% now
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' BK Hacken 1–0 Orgryte IS · Julius Lindberg
8′Julius Lindberg scores for BK Hacken on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–6
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' BK Hacken win: 66% at kick-off, 65% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' BK Hacken win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
10′We said BK Hacken at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–6
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Benjamin laturnus · Orgryte IS
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' BK Hacken win: 66% at kick-off, 83% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte IS · Julius Lindberg
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte IS · Julius Lindberg
45′SECOND HALF BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte IS
46′HALF-TIME BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte IS
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' BK Hacken 2–0 Orgryte IS · Julius Lindberg (assist abdoulaye doumbia)
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' BK Hacken 3–0 Orgryte IS · Julius Lindberg
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' BK Hacken 3–0 Orgryte IS · adrian svanback
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orgryte IS · On: michael parker · Off: Adam Andersson
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orgryte IS · On: David obou · Off: Anton Andreasson
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orgryte IS · On: Marlon Ebietomere · Off: Owen Parker-Price
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' BK Hacken · On: Mads Agger · Off: adrian svanback
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Tobias Sana · Orgryte IS
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' BK Hacken · On: Olle Samuelsson · Off: Adam Lundqvist
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' BK Hacken · On: Christ Ivan Wawa · Off: Julius Lindberg
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' BK Hacken · On: Wilson Elliot Lindberg Uhrström · Off: Mikkel Rygaard Jensen
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Johan Hammar · Orgryte IS
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Orgryte IS · On: Christoffer Styffe · Off: Daniel Paulson
FTFULL TIME BK Hacken 3–0 Orgryte IS
FTBK Hacken 3–0 Orgryte IS · BK Hacken win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

BK Hacken win66%

Draw18%

Orgryte IS win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueNordic Wellness Arena

RefereeKristoffer Karlsson

Line-ups

BK Hacken

4-2-3-1

Orgryte IS

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

BK Hacken

Orgryte IS

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

BK Hacken

4-2-3-1

99 E. Berisha

5 B. Wembangomo

13 H. Hilvenius

22 F. Helander

21 A. Lundkvist

6 A. Doumbia

19 D. Seger

20 A. Svanback

10 M. Rygaard

11 J. Lindberg

9 G. Lindgren

Coach · Jens Gustafsson

Substitutes

1 · A. Linde

23 · O. Samuelsson

15 · L. Vaisanen

32 · H. Ibrahim

8 · S. Hestnes

18 · W. Lindberg

7 · M. Agger

27 · C. Wawa

14 · M. Haaland

Orgryte IS

3-4-3

44 H. Gustafsson

33 S. Lagerlund

25 J. Hammar

6 M. Dyrestam

18 A. Andersson

23 O. Parker-Price

8 B. Laturnus

19 A. Andreasson

14 D. Paulson

22 T. Sana

17 W. Hofvander

Coach · Andreas Holmberg

Substitutes

34 · A. Rahm

3 · J. Azulay

5 · C. Styffe

2 · M. Parker

21 · W. Kenndal

7 · C. Vindehall

11 · D. Obou

9 · L. Andersson

29 · M. Ebietomere

Our number · bk hacken winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

66% The market73%

Us66%

~~Market~~73%

We make BK Hacken a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bk hacken win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 71% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BK Hacken win	66%	73%	−7
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Orgryte IS win	16%	11%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%	+1
Both teams to score	63%	57%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	50%	50%	0
BK Hacken or draw	84%	89%	−5
BK Hacken clean sheet	32%	–	–
Orgryte IS clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.8 3.0 1 6.4 7.5 4.3 2 8.0 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 6.6 7.5 4.4 4 4.2 4.7 2.7 5 2.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+BK Hacken down, Orgryte IS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,390 Allsvenskan matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BK Hacken at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Orgryte IS away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.51 goals for BK Hacken, 1.16 for Orgryte IS. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ORG 4–3 BKH

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

BK HACKEN

WWLDDW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–0

ORGRYTE IS

LDLDLL1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	−5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14