BK Hacken v Degerfors IF prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

BK Hacken 4–0 Degerfors IF BK HACKEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BK Hacken win~~63%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.208

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.168

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BK Hacken win at 63%.
2′Much as we predicted: BK Hacken was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–17
2′KICK-OFF BK Hacken v Degerfors IF
8′We published BK Hacken at 63%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–6
8′A goal for BK Hacken on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–6
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' BK Hacken 1–0 Degerfors IF
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' BK Hacken win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
14′We published BK Hacken at 63%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' BK Hacken 2–0 Degerfors IF
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' BK Hacken win: 63% at kick-off, 94% now
17′15′: Brice Wembangomo on the scoresheet for BK Hacken, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
17′We published BK Hacken at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Harry Joachim Hilvenius · BK Hacken
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' BK Hacken 3–0 Degerfors IF
31′BK Hacken ahead on 29′ through Mikkel Rygaard Jensen. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
31′We published BK Hacken at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' BK Hacken 4–0 Degerfors IF
32′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
34′Mikkel Rygaard Jensen scores for BK Hacken on 32′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME BK Hacken 4–0 Degerfors IF
45′SECOND HALF BK Hacken 4–0 Degerfors IF
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' gideon yaw yiriyon · Degerfors IF
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Degerfors IF · On: Ludvig Fritzson · Off: Dijan Vukojevic
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Degerfors IF · On: Arman Taranis · Off: Karim Boutera
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Degerfors IF · On: Ahmad Faqa · Off: Noel Milleskog
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' BK Hacken · On: Wilson Elliot Lindberg Uhrström · Off: Mikkel Rygaard Jensen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' BK Hacken · On: Harun Ibrahim · Off: Brice Wembangomo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Degerfors IF · On: Elias Barsoum · Off: gideon yaw yiriyon
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' BK Hacken · On: Mads Agger · Off: Gustav Lindgren
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' BK Hacken · On: Markus Haaland · Off: Julius Lindberg
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' BK Hacken · On: Simen Hestnes · Off: David Seger
92′Full time, 4–0. We called BK Hacken at 63% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME BK Hacken 4–0 Degerfors IF
FTBK Hacken 4–0 Degerfors IF · BK Hacken win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BK Hacken are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BK Hacken 63%, draw 20%, Degerfors IF 17%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on BK Hacken v Degerfors IFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

BK Hacken win63%

Draw20%

Degerfors IF win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueNordic Wellness Arena

RefereeSars Joakim

Line-ups

BK Hacken

Degerfors IF

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BK Hacken

Degerfors IF

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 19 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	BK Hacken	24	+13	42
14	Degerfors IF	24	−16	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BK Hacken

Formation not confirmed

99 E. Berisha

20 A. Svanbäck

19 D. Seger

10 M. Rygaard

21 A. Lundkvist

9 G. Lindgren

11 Julius Lindberg

13 H. Hilvenius

5 B. Wembangomo

6 A. Doumbia

22 F. Helander

Coach · J. Gustafsson

Substitutes

27 · C. Wawa

7 · M. Agger

14 · M. Haaland

8 · S. Hestnes

32 · H. Ibrahim

18 · W. Uhrström

1 · A. Linde

23 · O. Samuelsson

15 · L. Väisänen

Degerfors IF

Formation not confirmed

11 D. Vukojević

38 M. Igonen

9 K. Boutera

18 S. Diatara

14 L. Fritzson

22 N. Girmai Netabay

8 B. Hussein

10 N. Milleskog

3 Nikolai Skuseth

6 D. Sundgren

13 M. Hamilton

Coach · H. Goitom

Substitutes

17 · Arman Taranis

15 · N. Moro

1 · W. Jakobsson

28 · jesus hernandez

2 · Ahmad Faqa

23 · R. Dzabic

20 · E. Barsoum

Our number · bk hacken winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

63% The market67%

Us63%

~~Market~~67%

We make BK Hacken a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BK Hacken v Degerfors IF~~2.13 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 42 v 20~~4 v 14

~~The market · BK Hacken win~~67% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BK Hacken win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BK Hacken win	63%	67%	−4
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Degerfors IF win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
BK Hacken or draw	83%	86%	−3
BK Hacken clean sheet	37%	–	–
Degerfors IF clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 4.5 4.5 2.3 1 9.3 9.2 4.7 2 9.7 9.7 4.9 3 6.9 6.9 3.5 4 3.7 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BK Hacken down, Degerfors IF across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,404 Allsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BK Hacken at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Degerfors IF away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for BK Hacken, 1.01 for Degerfors IF. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEG 1–1 BKH · DEG 0–0 BKH · BKH 3–4 DEG · DEG 1–0 BKH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

BK HACKEN

LDDWWW1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

DEGERFORS IF

LWLLDL0–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	24	+25	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	24	+13	42
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
9	AIK Stockholm	24	−4	34
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	24	−16	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17