AIK Stockholm v IFK Goteborg prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

AIK Stockholm 2–2 IFK Goteborg AIK STOCKHOLM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AIK Stockholm win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AIK Stockholm win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AIK Stockholm 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF AIK Stockholm v IFK Goteborg
28′IFK Goteborg score on 27′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
28′We said AIK Stockholm at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' AIK Stockholm 0–1 IFK Goteborg
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 17% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' IFK Goteborg win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was AIK Stockholm win 17%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' AIK Stockholm 1–1 IFK Goteborg
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 39% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' AIK Stockholm win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was IFK Goteborg win 27%)
37′AIK Stockholm level it on 36′ through Diogo Tomas. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–34–27
45′HALF-TIME AIK Stockholm 1–1 IFK Goteborg
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' IFK Goteborg · On: Kevin Ackermann · Off: Nino Žugelj
46′SECOND HALF AIK Stockholm 1–1 IFK Goteborg
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was AIK Stockholm win 35%)
53′We said AIK Stockholm at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–43–24
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' AIK Stockholm · On: Sixten Gustafsson · Off: Linus Carlstrand
61′We said AIK Stockholm at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
69′We said AIK Stockholm at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
69′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–20–76
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' AIK Stockholm 1–2 IFK Goteborg
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 4% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' IFK Goteborg win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
70′Alexander Simmelhack scores for IFK Goteborg on 68′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AIK Stockholm · On: linus jareteg · Off: Taha Ayari
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AIK Stockholm · On: S. Wilson · Off: Lukas Bergquist
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 19–66–15
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' AIK Stockholm 2–2 IFK Goteborg
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was IFK Goteborg win 15%)
77′75′: axel kouame on the scoresheet for AIK Stockholm, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 17–69–13
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said AIK Stockholm at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–11
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' IFK Goteborg · On: Issaka Seidu · Off: Tobias Heintz
84′We said AIK Stockholm at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' AIK Stockholm · On: Yannick Emilio Geiger · Off: Lucas Assadi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' AIK Stockholm · On: Herve Matthys · Off: Wilmer Olofsson
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' AIK Stockholm win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' IFK Goteborg · On: Emil Carl Olof Fasth · Off: Felix Eriksson
FTFULL TIME AIK Stockholm 2–2 IFK Goteborg
FTAIK Stockholm 2–2 IFK Goteborg · AIK Stockholm win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AIK Stockholm are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AIK Stockholm 45%, draw 25%, IFK Goteborg 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on AIK Stockholm v IFK GoteborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AIK Stockholm win45%

Draw25%

IFK Goteborg win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 24

VenueStrawberry Arena

RefereeKristoffer Karlsson

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm

4-3-3

IFK Goteborg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AIK Stockholm

IFK Goteborg

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 9 Oct · Allsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm

4-3-3

15 K. Nordfeldt

2 E. Edh

33 D. Tomas

34 W. Olofsson

5 L. Bergquist

48 A. Kouame

45 T. Ayari

18 A. Ali

8 J. Hove

9 L. Carlstrand

10 L. Assadi

Coach · Jose Riveiro

Substitutes

20 · S. Hausner

28 · L. Järeteg

30 · K. Joelsson

16 · Sixten Gustafsson

3 · H. Matthys

43 · N. Staykov

17 · M. Thychosen

21 · S. Wilson

46 · Yannick Geiger

IFK Goteborg

4-2-3-1

12 V. Andersson

18 F. Eriksson

5 J. Bager

6 H. Hermannsson

22 Noah Tolf

24 O. Mansson

15 D. Kruse

11 N. Žugelj

8 S. Larsson

14 T. Heintz

7 Alexander Illum Simmelhack

Coach · Joachim Björklund

Substitutes

30 · T. Coimbra

4 · K. Ackermann

25 · E. Bishesari

20 · G. Ersoy

26 · E. Fasth

35 · N. Lunden

21 · L. Radakovic

28 · I. Seidu

9 · M. Fenger

Our number · aik stockholm winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make AIK Stockholm a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AIK Stockholm v IFK Goteborg~~1.59 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 33 v 35~~9 v 8

~~The market · AIK Stockholm win~~37% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AIK Stockholm win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AIK Stockholm win	45%	37%	+8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
IFK Goteborg win	30%	37%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
AIK Stockholm or draw	70%	63%	+7
AIK Stockholm clean sheet	29%	–	–
IFK Goteborg clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.1 7.4 4.6 1 9.4 11.6 7.1 3.0 2 7.5 9.1 5.6 2.3 3 4.0 4.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AIK Stockholm down, IFK Goteborg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,395 Allsvenskan matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 185 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AIK Stockholm at home: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). IFK Goteborg away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for AIK Stockholm, 1.24 for IFK Goteborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IFK 1–2 AIK · IFK 2–1 AIK · AIK 3–0 IFK · IFK 1–2 AIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug

AIK STOCKHOLM

WDLDLL3–2 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 5–6

IFK GOTEBORG

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	23	+28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	+13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	+5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	−4	33
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	−16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	−27	15
16	Halmstad	23	−28	14