AIK Stockholm v IF Elfsborg prediction · Allsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AIK StockholmDrawIF Elfsborg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AIK Stockholm 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AIK Stockholm just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AIK Stockholm 38%, draw 25%, IF Elfsborg 37%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on AIK Stockholm v IF ElfsborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

AIK Stockholm win38%

Draw25%

IF Elfsborg win37%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueStrawberry Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AIK Stockholm

IF Elfsborg

3Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 23 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aik stockholm winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make AIK Stockholm a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AIK Stockholm v IF Elfsborg~~1.45 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 37 v 42~~8 v 5

~~The market · AIK Stockholm win~~30% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AIK Stockholm win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AIK Stockholm win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
IF Elfsborg win	37%	44%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
AIK Stockholm or draw	63%	56%	+7
AIK Stockholm clean sheet	24%	–	–
IF Elfsborg clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.7 8.1 5.8 2.8 1 8.2 11.5 8.2 4.0 2 5.9 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 2.8 4.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AIK Stockholm down, IF Elfsborg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,404 Allsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AIK Stockholm at home: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). IF Elfsborg away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for AIK Stockholm, 1.44 for IF Elfsborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IFE 1–1 AIK · IFE 0–3 AIK · AIK 2–0 IFE · AIK 2–1 IFE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 6 Sept

AIK STOCKHOLM

LDLLDW1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 5–6 · 2–2 · 2–1

IF ELFSBORG

LWWWDD1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	25	+24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	+17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	−3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	−20	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17