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AIK Stockholm v IF Brommapojkarna

AIK Stockholm

5–6Full time

IF Brommapojkarna

Allsvenskan · SAT 10 OCT · Strawberry Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

AIK Stockholm 5–6 IF Brommapojkarna AIK STOCKHOLM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AIK Stockholm win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AIK Stockholm win at 49%.
4′Little has changed for our model: AIK Stockholm 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
4′KICK-OFF AIK Stockholm v IF Brommapojkarna
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' IF Brommapojkarna
44′10.0 shots for AIK Stockholm, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–36–24
45′12.0 shots for AIK Stockholm, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 39–37–24
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' AIK Stockholm win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME AIK Stockholm 0–0 IF Brommapojkarna
49′IF Brommapojkarna ahead on 48′ through Simon Strand. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–62
49′SECOND HALF AIK Stockholm 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' AIK Stockholm 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' AIK Stockholm win: 49% at kick-off, 12% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' IF Brommapojkarna win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was AIK Stockholm win 12%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 48' AIK Stockholm 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna · Simon Strand
57′Abdihakin Ali scores for AIK Stockholm on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–44–22
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' AIK Stockholm 1–1 IF Brommapojkarna · Simon Strand
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' AIK Stockholm win: 49% at kick-off, 34% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was IF Brommapojkarna win 22%)
59′⚽ GOAL · 55' AIK Stockholm 1–1 IF Brommapojkarna · Abdihakin Ali (assist Johan Hove)
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Mads Hansen · IF Brommapojkarna
62′IF Brommapojkarna ahead on 61′ through Wilmer Odefalk. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
62′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Mads Thychosen · AIK Stockholm
62′⚽ GOAL · 59' AIK Stockholm 1–3 IF Brommapojkarna · Kamilcan Sever
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' AIK Stockholm win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' IF Brommapojkarna win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
64′⚽ GOAL · 61' AIK Stockholm 1–3 IF Brommapojkarna · Wilmer Odefalk
66′Kamilcan Sever scores for IF Brommapojkarna on 65′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AIK Stockholm · On: Lukas Bergquist · Off: Eskil Smidesang Edh
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AIK Stockholm · On: Taha Ayari · Off: Linus Carlstrand Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Lukas Björklund · Off: Oliver Berg
69′⚽ GOAL · 65' AIK Stockholm 1–4 IF Brommapojkarna · Kamilcan Sever
71′70′ and it is 1–4: Anton Kurochkin on the scoresheet for IF Brommapojkarna. 1–4 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 70' AIK Stockholm 2–5 IF Brommapojkarna · Anton Kurochkin (assist Kamilcan Sever)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' IF Brommapojkarna · On: David Isso · Off: Kamilcan Sever
77′⚽ GOAL · 73' AIK Stockholm 2–5 IF Brommapojkarna · Taha Ayari (assist Lukas Bergquist)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AIK Stockholm · On: Diogo Tomas · Off: Sebastian Lund Hausner
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AIK Stockholm · On: Sixten Gustafsson · Off: Linus Carlstrand
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' IF Brommapojkarna · On: Pavle Vagic · Off: Jordan simpson
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' AIK Stockholm 3–5 IF Brommapojkarna · Taha Ayari
84′⚽ GOAL · 81' AIK Stockholm 4–5 IF Brommapojkarna · Sixten Gustafsson
87′⚽ GOAL · 83' AIK Stockholm 4–5 IF Brommapojkarna · Sixten Gustafsson (assist Lucas Assadi)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' AIK Stockholm · On: Wilmer Olofsson · Off: Herve Matthys
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' AIK Stockholm 5–5 IF Brommapojkarna · Sixten Gustafsson
FTFULL TIME AIK Stockholm 5–6 IF Brommapojkarna
FTAIK Stockholm 5–6 IF Brommapojkarna · AIK Stockholm win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AIK Stockholm win49%

Draw24%

IF Brommapojkarna win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Strawberry Arena

Referee · Adi Aganovic

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm

4-3-3

15 K. Nordfeldt

17 M. Thychosen

20 S. Hausner

3 H. Matthys

2 E. Edh

18 A. Ali

46 Y. Geiger

8 J. Hove

10 L. Assadi

48 A. Kouame

9 L. Carlstrand

Coach · Jose Riveiro

Substitutes

30 · K. Joelsson

5 · L. Bergquist

33 · D. Tomas

34 · W. Olofsson

28 · L. Jareteg

7 · A. Mujanic

21 · O. S. Wilson

45 · T. Ayari

16 · S. Gustafsson

IF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2

1 L. Cavallius

27 K. Barslund

23 J. Simpson

3 A. Troelsen

6 O. Zanden

9 M. Hansen

20 W. Odefalk

21 S. Strand

17 A. Kurochkin

10 O. Berg

14 K. Sever

Coach · Ulf Kristiansson

Substitutes

25 · D. Blazevic

2 · P. Vagic

22 · R. Bergvall

30 · L. Bjorklund

24 · M. Derbali

11 · R. Orqvist

7 · O. Okeke

34 · D. Isso

12 · B. Amole

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm

4-3-3

15 K. Nordfeldt

17 M. Thychosen

20 S. Hausner

3 H. Matthys

2 E. Edh

18 A. Ali

46 Y. Geiger

8 J. Hove

10 L. Assadi

48 A. Kouame

9 L. Carlstrand

Coach · Jose Riveiro

Substitutes

30 · K. Joelsson

5 · L. Bergquist

33 · D. Tomas

34 · W. Olofsson

28 · L. Jareteg

7 · A. Mujanic

21 · O. S. Wilson

45 · T. Ayari

16 · S. Gustafsson

IF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2

1 L. Cavallius

27 K. Barslund

23 J. Simpson

3 A. Troelsen

6 O. Zanden

9 M. Hansen

20 W. Odefalk

21 S. Strand

17 A. Kurochkin

10 O. Berg

14 K. Sever

Coach · Ulf Kristiansson

Substitutes

25 · D. Blazevic

2 · P. Vagic

22 · R. Bergvall

30 · L. Bjorklund

24 · M. Derbali

11 · R. Orqvist

7 · O. Okeke

34 · D. Isso

12 · B. Amole

Our number · aik stockholm winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make AIK Stockholm a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AIK Stockholm win	49%	49%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
IF Brommapojkarna win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
AIK Stockholm or draw	73%	74%	−1
AIK Stockholm clean sheet	30%	–	–
IF Brommapojkarna clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.6 6.4 3.9 1 9.1 11.1 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 4.6 5.4 3.2 4 2.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AIK Stockholm down, IF Brommapojkarna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,387 Allsvenskan matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AIK Stockholm at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for AIK Stockholm, 1.21 for IF Brommapojkarna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~IFB 2–2 AIK · AIK 2–1 IFB · IFB 0–1 AIK · AIK 2–1 IFB

Form · last six in Allsvenskan

AIK STOCKHOLM

WWDLDL3–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA

WWLWLL3–1 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	22	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	+26	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	+9	37
5	BK Hacken	22	+9	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	−9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	+4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	22	−3	33
10	Gais	22	+8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	−6	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	−11	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	−15	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	−15	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	−24	15
16	Halmstad	22	−24	14