Notch v Voorwaarts prediction · Eerste Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NotchDrawVoorwaarts

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Voorwaarts 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Voorwaarts are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Notch 28%, draw 27%, Voorwaarts 45%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Notch v VoorwaartsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Notch win28%

Draw27%

Voorwaarts win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundGroup stage

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Notch

Voorwaarts

7Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Eerste Divisie (Suriname)

Last match: 22 Oct · Eerste Divisie (Suriname)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Notch	3	+3	4
5	Voorwaarts	3	+1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · voorwaarts winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 02:42 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Voorwaarts a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Notch v Voorwaarts~~1.03 – 1.39

~~Form · Eerste Divisie this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Voorwaarts win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Notch win	28%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Voorwaarts win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Notch or draw	55%	–	–
Notch clean sheet	26%	–	–
Voorwaarts clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.8 12.2 8.5 4.1 1 8.9 12.5 8.4 4.0 2 4.7 6.3 4.3 2.1 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Notch down, Voorwaarts across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 675 Eerste Divisie matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Notch at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Voorwaarts away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Notch, 1.39 for Voorwaarts. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VOO 2–2 NOT · NOT 0–1 VOO · VOO 2–2 NOT · VOO 0–0 NOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Eerste Divisie this season · since 10 Oct

NOTCH

LDW0–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

VOORWAARTS

DLW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leo Victor	3	+5	7
2	Robin Hood	2	+7	6
3	Inter Moengotapoe	2	+4	6
4	Notch	3	+3	4
5	Voorwaarts	3	+1	4
6	Transvaal	1	+1	3
7	Broki	2	−3	1
8	Flora	1	−1	0
9	Coronie Boys	1	−3	0
10	FC Inter Wanica	1	−4	0
11	PVV	3	−10	0