UD San Pedro v Marbelli prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

UD San Pedro 2–0 Marbelli UD SAN PEDRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UD San Pedro win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UD San Pedro win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: UD San Pedro 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
1′KICK-OFF UD San Pedro v Marbelli
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was UD San Pedro win 35%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' UD San Pedro win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME UD San Pedro 0–0 Marbelli
46′SECOND HALF UD San Pedro 0–0 Marbelli
50′We said UD San Pedro at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
61′We said UD San Pedro at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' UD San Pedro win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
70′We said UD San Pedro at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
72′UD San Pedro find the net on 72′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
72′We said UD San Pedro at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' UD San Pedro 1–0 Marbelli
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' UD San Pedro win: 41% at kick-off, 87% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' UD San Pedro win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
77′We said UD San Pedro at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' UD San Pedro win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
84′We said UD San Pedro at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′A goal for UD San Pedro on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′We said UD San Pedro at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' UD San Pedro 2–0 Marbelli
FTFULL TIME UD San Pedro 2–0 Marbelli
FTUD San Pedro 2–0 Marbelli · UD San Pedro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UD San Pedro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UD San Pedro 41%, draw 31%, Marbelli 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on UD San Pedro v MarbelliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UD San Pedro win41%

Draw31%

Marbelli win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UD San Pedro

Marbelli

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Marbelli	6	+3	13
10	UD San Pedro	6	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ud san pedro winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make UD San Pedro a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UD San Pedro v Marbelli~~1.15 – 0.90

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UD San Pedro win	41%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Marbelli win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
UD San Pedro or draw	72%	–	–
UD San Pedro clean sheet	41%	–	–
Marbelli clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 13.9 11.0 5.2 1 14.1 13.6 5.8 2 8.5 7.4 3.4 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UD San Pedro down, Marbelli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UD San Pedro at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Marbelli away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for UD San Pedro, 0.90 for Marbelli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UDS 1–0 MAR · MAR 1–0 UDS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept

UD SAN PEDRO

WLWWLL1–0 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–2

MARBELLI

DWWWWL1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	6	+10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	+8	14
3	Almería II	6	+7	13
4	Marbelli	6	+3	13
5	Motril	6	+4	12
6	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
7	Málaga II	6	+6	10
8	Granada II	6	+4	10
9	Churriana Vega	6	+3	9
10	UD San Pedro	6	−3	9
11	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
12	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	−8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	−4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	−4	4
16	Cantoria	6	−6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0