Torre del Mar v Ciudad de Torredonjimeno prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Torre del Mar 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno TORRE DEL MAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torre del Mar win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.980

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torre del Mar win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Torre del Mar was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–20
1′KICK-OFF Torre del Mar v Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Torre del Mar win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
42′Ciudad de Torredonjimeno score on 42′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–60
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Torre del Mar 0–1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Torre del Mar win: 51% at kick-off, 13% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Torre del Mar win 13%)
43′We said Torre del Mar at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–27–61
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–27–61
45′HALF-TIME Torre del Mar 0–1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Torre del Mar win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
47′SECOND HALF Torre del Mar 0–1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
53′We said Torre del Mar at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
57′Ciudad de Torredonjimeno find the net on 57′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Torre del Mar 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Torre del Mar win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
58′We said Torre del Mar at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
86′A red card for Torre del Mar on 85′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Torre del Mar
FTFULL TIME Torre del Mar 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FTTorre del Mar 0–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · Torre del Mar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torre del Mar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torre del Mar 51%, draw 28%, Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 20%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Torre del Mar v Ciudad de TorredonjimenoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torre del Mar win51%

Draw28%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torre del Mar

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	+1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torre del mar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Torre del Mar a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torre del Mar v Ciudad de Torredonjimeno~~1.43 – 0.79

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~11 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torre del Mar win	51%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Torre del Mar or draw	80%	–	–
Torre del Mar clean sheet	46%	–	–
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.9 8.1 3.4 1 14.9 12.6 4.8 2 11.0 8.5 3.4 3 5.3 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torre del Mar down, Ciudad de Torredonjimeno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torre del Mar at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Torre del Mar, 0.79 for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CIU 0–0 TOR · TOR 0–0 CIU · CIU 1–2 TOR · TOR 1–1 CIU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept

TORRE DEL MAR

WDLLLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

CIUDAD DE TORREDONJIMENO

LLDDWW1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	6	+10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	+8	14
3	Almería II	6	+7	13
4	Marbelli	6	+3	13
5	Motril	6	+4	12
6	Málaga II	6	+6	10
7	Granada II	6	+4	10
8	Churriana Vega	6	+3	9
9	UD San Pedro	6	−3	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	+1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	0	7
12	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	−8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	−4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	−4	4
16	Cantoria	6	−6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0