Motril v Málaga II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MotrilDrawMálaga II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Motril 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Motril just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Motril 38%, draw 29%, Málaga II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Motril v Málaga IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Motril win38%

Draw29%

Málaga II win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Motril

Málaga II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Motril	7	+6	15
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · motril winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Motril a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Motril v Málaga II~~1.23 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motril win	38%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Málaga II win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Motril or draw	66%	–	–
Motril clean sheet	33%	–	–
Málaga II clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.3 10.1 6.1 2.4 1 10.8 13.2 7.2 2.8 2 7.1 7.8 4.4 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motril down, Málaga II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motril at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Málaga II away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Motril, 1.15 for Málaga II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MOT 0–1 MAL · MAL 5–0 MOT · MAL 1–1 MOT · MOT 2–0 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept

MOTRIL

DWWWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

MÁLAGA II

WDWWLD6–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0