Motril v Atlético Porcuna prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Motril 1–1 Atlético Porcuna MOTRIL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Motril win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Motril win at 67%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Motril 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–19–13
3′Little has changed for our model: Motril 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
22′Atlético Porcuna find the net on 21′. 1–1. 1–1 · 62–24–14
23′Atlético Porcuna find the net on 21′. 1–1. 1–1 · 61–25–14
43′We said Motril at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–33–14
45′We said Motril at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 1–1 · 52–34–14
51′We said Motril at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–38–14
71′We said Motril at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–58–10
87′We said Motril at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–91–3
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 32% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 32% now
90′We said Motril at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 32% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Motril win: 67% at kick-off, 0% now
90′🟥 RED CARD · 97' Motril
FTFULL TIME Motril 1–1 Atlético Porcuna
FTMotril 1–1 Atlético Porcuna · Motril win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Motril win67%

Draw20%

Atlético Porcuna win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Motril

Atlético Porcuna

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Motril	5	+4	11
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · motril winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Motril a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motril win	67%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Atlético Porcuna win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Motril or draw	87%	–	–
Motril clean sheet	45%	–	–
Atlético Porcuna clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 4.0 1 10.8 9.4 3.7 2 11.7 9.4 3.8 3 8.3 6.6 2.7 4 4.5 3.6 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Motril down, Atlético Porcuna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motril at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Porcuna away: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Motril, 0.82 for Atlético Porcuna. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MOT 2–1 ATL · ATL 1–0 MOT · ATL 0–1 MOT · MOT 1–4 ATL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

MOTRIL

DDDWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

ATLÉTICO PORCUNA

LWLWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0