Melilla v UD San Pedro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro MELILLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Melilla win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.331

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Melilla win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Melilla was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
7′A goal for Melilla on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–7
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
18′A goal for Melilla on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 54% now
19′We published Melilla at 53%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
40′We published Melilla at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Melilla win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
45′HALF-TIME Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro
46′SECOND HALF Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro
79′⚽ GOAL · 7' Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro
79′⚽ GOAL · 48' Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro
FTFULL TIME Melilla 2–0 UD San Pedro
FTMelilla 2–0 UD San Pedro · Melilla win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Melilla win53%

Draw26%

UD San Pedro win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Melilla

UD San Pedro

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · melilla winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Melilla a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Melilla win	53%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
UD San Pedro win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Melilla or draw	79%	–	–
Melilla clean sheet	40%	–	–
UD San Pedro clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.7 6.7 3.4 1 12.1 11.8 5.3 2 10.1 9.0 4.2 3 5.6 5.0 2.3 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Melilla down, UD San Pedro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Melilla at home: 2.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). UD San Pedro away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Melilla, 0.94 for UD San Pedro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

MELILLA

WWWWW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

UD SAN PEDRO

WWLWWL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0