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Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 › Melilla v Cantoria

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Melilla v Cantoria

Melilla
2–0Full time
Cantoria

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41
Melilla 2–0 Cantoria MELILLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Melilla win63%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.212

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Melilla win at 63%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Melilla was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–23–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Melilla v Cantoria
  4. 16′A goal for Melilla on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Melilla 1–0 Cantoria
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Melilla win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
  7. 17′We published Melilla at 63%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Melilla 1–0 Cantoria
  10. 46′A. Martinez Escudero scores for Melilla on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  11. 46′A red card for Cantoria on 29′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 86–12–2
  12. 46′🟥 RED CARD · 29' M. Quintero · Cantoria
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Melilla 1–0 Cantoria
  14. 69′Melilla score on 68′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Melilla 2–0 Cantoria
  16. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Melilla win: 63% at kick-off, 99% now
  17. 70′We published Melilla at 63%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 76′We published Melilla at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Melilla 2–0 Cantoria
  20. FTMelilla 2–0 Cantoria · Melilla win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melilla are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Melilla 63%, draw 23%, Cantoria 14%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Melilla v CantoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Melilla win63%
Draw23%
Cantoria win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Melilla

Cantoria

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Melilla7+818
17Cantoria7−83

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · melilla winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
63% The market–
Us63%

We make Melilla a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Melilla v Cantoria1.87 – 0.75
Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 SeptW5 D0 L1 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 18 v 31 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Melilla win63%––
Draw23%––
Cantoria win14%––
Over 2.5 goals48%––
Both teams to score44%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals27%––
Melilla or draw86%––
Melilla clean sheet48%––
Cantoria clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%
0123450 8.4 5.2 2.2 1 13.2 10.4 3.8 2 12.4 9.0 3.4 3 7.7 5.6 2.1 4 3.8 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Melilla down, Cantoria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept

MELILLA

WWWWWL3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

CANTORIA

DDLDLL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Melilla7+818
2Almería II7+816
3Arenas Armilla7+815
4Motril7+615
5Marbelli7+113
6UD San Pedro7−112
7Málaga II7+611
8Ciudad de Torredonjimeno7+311
9Churriana Vega7+310
10Granada II7+310
11Atlético Porcuna7−610
12Alhaurino7−28
13Torre del Mar7−27
14Huétor Vega7−46
15Atletico de Marbella7−45
16Mancha Real7−65
17Cantoria7−83
18Malaga City7−130

The competition's standings before kick-off.