Marbelli v Atlético Porcuna prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MarbelliDrawAtlético Porcuna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Marbelli 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marbelli are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marbelli 51%, draw 27%, Atlético Porcuna 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Marbelli v Atlético PorcunaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Marbelli win51%

Draw27%

Atlético Porcuna win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marbelli

Atlético Porcuna

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marbelli winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Marbelli a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marbelli v Atlético Porcuna~~1.50 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marbelli win	51%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Atlético Porcuna win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Marbelli or draw	78%	–	–
Marbelli clean sheet	42%	–	–
Atlético Porcuna clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 7.7 3.7 1 13.2 12.5 5.3 2 10.3 8.9 3.9 3 5.2 4.5 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marbelli down, Atlético Porcuna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marbelli at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Porcuna away: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Marbelli, 0.89 for Atlético Porcuna. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAR 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–0 MAR · ATL 1–1 MAR · MAR 2–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept

MARBELLI

WWWWLL2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

ATLÉTICO PORCUNA

LWLLDW1–6 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0