Mancha Real v Alhaurino prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mancha RealDrawAlhaurino

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mancha Real 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mancha Real are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mancha Real 40%, draw 29%, Alhaurino 30%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Mancha Real v AlhaurinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mancha Real win40%

Draw29%

Alhaurino win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mancha Real

Alhaurino

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mancha real winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Mancha Real a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mancha Real v Alhaurino~~1.24 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~16 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mancha Real win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Alhaurino win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Mancha Real or draw	70%	–	–
Mancha Real clean sheet	36%	–	–
Alhaurino clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.3 10.1 5.6 1 12.1 13.4 6.7 2.4 2 7.8 7.9 4.1 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mancha Real down, Alhaurino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mancha Real at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alhaurino away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Mancha Real, 1.04 for Alhaurino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALH 1–1 MAN · MAN 2–4 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept

MANCHA REAL

LLDLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 2–1

ALHAURINO

LWLLWD0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0