Málaga II v Churriana Vega prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Málaga II 1–1 Churriana Vega MÁLAGA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Málaga II win~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Málaga II win at 73%.
1′Much as we predicted: Málaga II was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–18–10
1′KICK-OFF Málaga II v Churriana Vega
10′Málaga II find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–7–3
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Málaga II 1–0 Churriana Vega
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 90% now
11′We published Málaga II at 73%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–8–3
23′We published Málaga II at 73%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–2
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
45′Málaga II ahead on 11′ through A. Rodriguez Navarro. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
45′HALF-TIME Málaga II 1–0 Churriana Vega
46′SECOND HALF Málaga II 1–0 Churriana Vega
49′A goal for Churriana Vega on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 54–35–11
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Málaga II 1–1 Churriana Vega
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 54% now
50′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–36–11
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
56′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–40–10
62′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–46–10
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 43% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Málaga II win 42%)
67′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–52–9
71′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–57–8
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 33% now
75′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–64–7
78′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–69–6
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 23% now
81′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–75–5
84′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–83–4
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 13% now
88′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
93′We said Málaga II at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–1
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Málaga II win: 73% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Málaga II 1–1 Churriana Vega
FTMálaga II 1–1 Churriana Vega · Málaga II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Málaga II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Málaga II 73%, draw 18%, Churriana Vega 9%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Málaga II v Churriana VegaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Málaga II win73%

Draw18%

Churriana Vega win9%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Málaga II

Churriana Vega

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Málaga II	6	+6	10
9	Churriana Vega	6	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · málaga ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Málaga II a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Málaga II v Churriana Vega~~2.31 – 0.67

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Málaga II win	73%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Churriana Vega win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Málaga II or draw	91%	–	–
Málaga II clean sheet	52%	–	–
Churriana Vega clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.2%

0123450 6.0 3.4 1 11.6 8.2 2.7 2 13.2 8.6 2.9 3 10.0 6.4 2.2 4 6.0 3.7 5 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Málaga II down, Churriana Vega across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Málaga II at home: 2.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Churriana Vega away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Málaga II, 0.67 for Churriana Vega. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 6 Sept

MÁLAGA II

LWDWWL0–1 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

CHURRIANA VEGA

LWLLWW0–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	6	+10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	+8	14
3	Almería II	6	+7	13
4	Marbelli	6	+3	13
5	Motril	6	+4	12
6	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
7	Málaga II	6	+6	10
8	Granada II	6	+4	10
9	Churriana Vega	6	+3	9
10	UD San Pedro	6	−3	9
11	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
12	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	−8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	−4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	−4	4
16	Cantoria	6	−6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0