Malaga City v Mancha Real prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Malaga City 1–2 Mancha Real MANCHA REAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mancha Real win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mancha Real win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mancha Real 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Malaga City v Mancha Real
6′A goal for Mancha Real on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–20–65
6′We said Mancha Real at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Malaga City 0–1 Mancha Real
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 65% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
38′We said Mancha Real at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Malaga City 1–1 Mancha Real
46′SECOND HALF Malaga City 1–1 Mancha Real
48′Malaga City score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–44–28
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Malaga City 1–1 Mancha Real
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 28% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Mancha Real win 28%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
59′We said Mancha Real at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
70′We said Mancha Real at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
70′Mancha Real find the net on 70′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Malaga City 1–2 Mancha Real
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 82% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Mancha Real win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
71′We said Mancha Real at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
71′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–16–82
75′We said Mancha Real at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 87% now
81′We said Mancha Real at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
87′We said Mancha Real at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Mancha Real win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Malaga City 1–2 Mancha Real
FTMalaga City 1–2 Mancha Real · Mancha Real win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mancha Real just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Malaga City 35%, draw 29%, Mancha Real 36%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Malaga City v Mancha RealBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Malaga City win35%

Draw29%

Mancha Real win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malaga City

Mancha Real

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mancha real winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Mancha Real a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malaga City v Mancha Real~~1.20 – 1.21

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 0 v 2~~18 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malaga City win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Mancha Real win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Malaga City or draw	64%	–	–
Malaga City clean sheet	31%	–	–
Mancha Real clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 10.3 6.6 2.7 1 10.3 13.2 7.5 3.1 2 6.5 7.5 4.5 3 2.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malaga City down, Mancha Real across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malaga City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mancha Real away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Malaga City, 1.21 for Mancha Real. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAL 4–1 MAN · MAN 3–2 MAL · MAL 1–0 MAN · MAN 2–1 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept

MALAGA CITY

LLLLLL1–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–5

MANCHA REAL

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	7	+8	18
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	−4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	−4	4
16	Cantoria	7	−8	3
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0