Huétor Vega v Torre del Mar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Huétor VegaDrawTorre del Mar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Huétor Vega 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huétor Vega are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huétor Vega 41%, draw 29%, Torre del Mar 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Huétor Vega v Torre del MarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Huétor Vega win41%

Draw29%

Torre del Mar win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huétor Vega

Torre del Mar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · huétor vega winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Huétor Vega a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huétor Vega v Torre del Mar~~1.29 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huétor Vega win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Torre del Mar win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Huétor Vega or draw	70%	–	–
Huétor Vega clean sheet	35%	–	–
Torre del Mar clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.6 9.6 5.4 1 11.8 13.3 6.7 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.3 3 3.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huétor Vega down, Torre del Mar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huétor Vega at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Torre del Mar away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Huétor Vega, 1.06 for Torre del Mar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HUE 1–1 TOR · TOR 3–1 HUE · HUE 0–1 TOR · TOR 1–0 HUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 12 Sept

HUÉTOR VEGA

LLDWLD0–3 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–2

TORRE DEL MAR

DLLLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0