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Granada II v Atletico de Marbella

Granada II

2–1Full time

Atletico de Marbella

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · SUN 11 OCT · Ciudad Deportiva del Granada

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Granada II 2–1 Atletico de Marbella GRANADA II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Granada II win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.283

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Granada II win at 57%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Granada II 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
8′Little has changed for our model: Granada II 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–18
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 50% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 50% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 50% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′45′ and it is 1–1: Atletico de Marbella have scored. 1–1 · 44–39–17
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 50% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Granada II 0–0 Atletico de Marbella
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Granada II 1–1 Atletico de Marbella
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Granada II 1–1 Atletico de Marbella
46′SECOND HALF Granada II 1–1 Atletico de Marbella
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Granada II win: 57% at kick-off, 44% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 57' Granada II 2–1 Atletico de Marbella
FTFULL TIME Granada II 2–1 Atletico de Marbella
FTGranada II 2–1 Atletico de Marbella · Granada II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Granada II win57%

Draw25%

Atletico de Marbella win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueCiudad Deportiva del Granada

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Granada II

Atletico de Marbella

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · granada ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Granada II a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Granada II win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Atletico de Marbella win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Granada II or draw	82%	–	–
Granada II clean sheet	43%	–	–
Atletico de Marbella clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.8 6.3 2.9 1 12.7 11.4 4.7 2 11.0 9.0 3.9 3 6.3 5.2 2.2 4 2.9 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Granada II down, Atletico de Marbella across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Granada II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico de Marbella away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Granada II, 0.85 for Atletico de Marbella. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

GRANADA II

DDWLWL4–4 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

ATLETICO DE MARBELLA

LDWLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0