Ciudad de Torredonjimeno v Malaga City prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ciudad de TorredonjimenoDrawMalaga City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 70%, draw 19%, Malaga City 12%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ciudad de Torredonjimeno v Malaga CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win70%

Draw19%

Malaga City win12%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Malaga City

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ciudad de torredonjimeno winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Ciudad de Torredonjimeno a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno v Malaga City~~2.28 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 11 v 0~~8 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win	70%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Malaga City win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw	88%	–	–
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno clean sheet	46%	–	–
Malaga City clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 5.5 3.6 1 10.5 8.8 3.3 2 11.8 9.1 3.6 3 8.8 6.8 2.7 4 5.1 3.9 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ciudad de Torredonjimeno down, Malaga City across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Malaga City away: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno, 0.79 for Malaga City. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CIU 2–0 MAL · MAL 1–1 CIU · MAL 3–2 CIU · CIU 2–2 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept

CIUDAD DE TORREDONJIMENO

LDDWWW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

MALAGA CITY

LLLLLL1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0