Ciudad de Torredonjimeno v Huétor Vega prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3–1 Huétor Vega CIUDAD DE TORREDONJIMENO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.432

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
2′Much as we predicted: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
42′Huétor Vega find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
45′Huétor Vega find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
51′A goal for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
55′A goal for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–45–22
75′We said Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
90′83′ and it is 2–1: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno have scored. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′Ciudad de Torredonjimeno find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3–1 Huétor Vega
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win: 46% at kick-off, 100% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win 19%)
FTFULL TIME Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3–1 Huétor Vega
FTCiudad de Torredonjimeno 3–1 Huétor Vega · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win46%

Draw26%

Huétor Vega win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Huétor Vega

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ciudad de torredonjimeno winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Ciudad de Torredonjimeno a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Huétor Vega win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw	72%	–	–
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno clean sheet	32%	–	–
Huétor Vega clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.6 7.2 4.4 1 10.0 12.2 6.6 2.6 2 8.1 9.0 5.1 3 4.3 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ciudad de Torredonjimeno down, Huétor Vega across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Huétor Vega away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno, 1.15 for Huétor Vega. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HUE 1–2 CIU · CIU 1–1 HUE · CIU 1–2 HUE · HUE 1–0 CIU

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

CIUDAD DE TORREDONJIMENO

LLLDDW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

HUÉTOR VEGA

WDLLDW4–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0