Churriana Vega v Granada II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Churriana VegaDrawGranada II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Churriana Vega 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Churriana Vega are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Churriana Vega 44%, draw 27%, Granada II 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Churriana Vega v Granada IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Churriana Vega win44%

Draw27%

Granada II win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Churriana Vega

Granada II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · churriana vega winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Churriana Vega a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Churriana Vega v Granada II~~1.48 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Churriana Vega win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Granada II win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Churriana Vega or draw	71%	–	–
Churriana Vega clean sheet	32%	–	–
Granada II clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 7.8 4.8 1 10.1 12.5 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.8 5.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Churriana Vega down, Granada II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Churriana Vega at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Granada II away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Churriana Vega, 1.16 for Granada II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRA 2–2 CHU · CHU 2–0 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept

CHURRIANA VEGA

WLLWWD4–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

GRANADA II

WLWLWL4–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0