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Churriana Vega v Cantoria

Churriana Vega

3–0Full time

Cantoria

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Churriana Vega 3–0 Cantoria CHURRIANA VEGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Churriana Vega win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Churriana Vega win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Churriana Vega v Cantoria
3′Much as we predicted: Churriana Vega was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–24
11′Much as we predicted: Churriana Vega was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Churriana Vega 1–0 Cantoria
21′Churriana Vega find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
22′Churriana Vega find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Churriana Vega 2–0 Cantoria
38′A goal for Churriana Vega on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
43′A goal for Churriana Vega on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Churriana Vega 2–0 Cantoria
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Churriana Vega win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Churriana Vega 2–0 Cantoria
85′⚽ GOAL · 13' Churriana Vega 2–0 Cantoria
85′⚽ GOAL · 37' Churriana Vega 2–0 Cantoria
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Churriana Vega 3–0 Cantoria
FTFULL TIME Churriana Vega 3–0 Cantoria
FTChurriana Vega 3–0 Cantoria · Churriana Vega win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Churriana Vega win48%

Draw28%

Cantoria win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Churriana Vega

Cantoria

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · churriana vega winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Churriana Vega a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Churriana Vega win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cantoria win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Churriana Vega or draw	76%	–	–
Churriana Vega clean sheet	40%	–	–
Cantoria clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 10.7 8.4 4.2 1 13.0 12.7 5.6 2 9.5 8.5 3.9 3 4.6 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Churriana Vega down, Cantoria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Churriana Vega at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cantoria away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Churriana Vega, 0.93 for Cantoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

CHURRIANA VEGA

DLWLLW0–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2

CANTORIA

LDDLD0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0