Cantoria v Motril prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Cantoria 0–2 Motril MOTRIL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Motril win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Motril win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Motril 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 26–28–45
1′KICK-OFF Cantoria v Motril
24′Motril find the net on 24′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–17–75
24′We said Motril at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–17–75
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cantoria 0–1 Motril
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Motril win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–18–76
45′HALF-TIME Cantoria 0–1 Motril
46′SECOND HALF Cantoria 0–1 Motril
54′We said Motril at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
59′A goal for Motril on 59′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
59′We said Motril at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cantoria 0–2 Motril
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Motril win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
80′We said Motril at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Cantoria 0–2 Motril
FTCantoria 0–2 Motril · Motril win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Motril are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cantoria 26%, draw 28%, Motril 45%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Cantoria v MotrilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cantoria win26%

Draw28%

Motril win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cantoria

Motril

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Motril	6	+4	12
16	Cantoria	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · motril winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Motril a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cantoria v Motril~~0.96 – 1.37

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 12~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cantoria win	26%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Motril win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Cantoria or draw	55%	–	–
Cantoria clean sheet	26%	–	–
Motril clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.8 12.7 9.0 4.3 1 8.9 12.9 8.2 3.8 2 4.6 6.0 4.0 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cantoria down, Motril across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cantoria at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Motril away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Cantoria, 1.37 for Motril. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 5 Sept

CANTORIA

LDDLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

MOTRIL

DDWWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	6	+10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	+8	14
3	Almería II	6	+7	13
4	Marbelli	6	+3	13
5	Motril	6	+4	12
6	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
7	Málaga II	6	+6	10
8	Granada II	6	+4	10
9	Churriana Vega	6	+3	9
10	UD San Pedro	6	−3	9
11	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
12	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	−8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	−4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	−4	4
16	Cantoria	6	−6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0