Arenas Armilla v UD San Pedro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arenas ArmillaDrawUD San Pedro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arenas Armilla 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arenas Armilla are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arenas Armilla 52%, draw 27%, UD San Pedro 21%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Arenas Armilla v UD San PedroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Arenas Armilla win52%

Draw27%

UD San Pedro win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arenas Armilla

UD San Pedro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arenas armilla winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Arenas Armilla a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arenas Armilla v UD San Pedro~~1.50 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenas Armilla win	52%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
UD San Pedro win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Arenas Armilla or draw	79%	–	–
Arenas Armilla clean sheet	43%	–	–
UD San Pedro clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.5 7.7 3.5 1 13.8 12.4 5.0 2 10.6 8.8 3.7 3 5.4 4.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenas Armilla down, UD San Pedro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arenas Armilla at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). UD San Pedro away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Arenas Armilla, 0.85 for UD San Pedro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UDS 2–1 ARE · ARE 2–0 UDS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept

ARENAS ARMILLA

WDDWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 2–2

UD SAN PEDRO

LWWLLW0–4 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0