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Arenas Armilla v Malaga City

Arenas Armilla

5–1Full time

Malaga City

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Arenas Armilla 5–1 Malaga City ARENAS ARMILLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arenas Armilla win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.168

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arenas Armilla win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arenas Armilla 67% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–20–12
2′Little has changed for our model: Arenas Armilla 67% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–21–12
23′22′ and it is 1–0: Arenas Armilla have scored. 1–0 · 88–10–3
44′Malaga City find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–36–12
45′Malaga City find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 51–36–12
50′We said Arenas Armilla at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–40–12
52′We said Arenas Armilla at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–41–12
72′56′ and it is 3–1: Arenas Armilla have scored. 3–1 · 99–1–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Arenas Armilla 5–1 Malaga City
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Arenas Armilla win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
88′A goal for Arenas Armilla on 79′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Arenas Armilla 5–1 Malaga City
FTArenas Armilla 5–1 Malaga City · Arenas Armilla win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Arenas Armilla win67%

Draw21%

Malaga City win12%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Arenas Armilla

Malaga City

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arenas armilla winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Arenas Armilla a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arenas Armilla win	67%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Malaga City win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Arenas Armilla or draw	88%	–	–
Arenas Armilla clean sheet	52%	–	–
Malaga City clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 8.1 4.6 1 13.8 9.7 3.1 2 13.5 8.8 3.0 3 8.9 5.7 4 4.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arenas Armilla down, Malaga City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arenas Armilla at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Malaga City away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Arenas Armilla, 0.66 for Malaga City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARE 3–2 MAL · MAL 0–1 ARE · ARE 1–0 MAL · MAL 1–1 ARE

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

ARENAS ARMILLA

DWWDDW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–0

MALAGA CITY

LLLLLL2–3 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0