Almería II v Málaga II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Almería II 2–1 Málaga II ALMERÍA II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almería II win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almería II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Almería II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
3′Much as we predicted: Almería II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–32
21′A goal for Almería II on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–11
26′A goal for Almería II on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–10
32′We published Almería II at 41%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
41′35′ and it is 2–0: Almería II have scored. 2–0 · 93–6–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
45′35′ and it is 2–0: Almería II have scored. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′We published Almería II at 41%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Almería II 2–0 Málaga II
46′SECOND HALF Almería II 2–0 Málaga II
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Almería II win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Almería II 2–1 Málaga II
FTFULL TIME Almería II 2–1 Málaga II
FTAlmería II 2–1 Málaga II · Almería II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Almería II win41%

Draw27%

Málaga II win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Almería II

Málaga II

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almería ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Almería II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · almería ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almería II win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Málaga II win	32%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
Almería II or draw	68%	73%	−4
Almería II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Málaga II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 8.5 5.3 2.2 1 10.1 12.6 7.1 2.9 2 7.3 8.3 4.9 3 3.5 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almería II down, Málaga II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almería II at home: 3.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Málaga II away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Almería II, 1.19 for Málaga II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALM 0–2 MAL · MAL 0–0 ALM · ALM 0–0 MAL · MAL 1–2 ALM

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

ALMERÍA II

WWWLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

MÁLAGA II

WLWDWW3–1 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	5	+8	15
2	Marbelli	6	+3	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	+4	11
4	Motril	5	+4	11
5	Málaga II	5	+7	10
6	Almería II	5	+6	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	−1	9
8	Granada II	5	+3	7
9	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	0	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	−8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	−1	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	−2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	−2	4
15	Atletico de Marbella	5	−3	4
16	Cantoria	5	−3	3
17	Mancha Real	5	−5	2
18	Malaga City	5	−8	0