Almería II v Atletico de Marbella prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Almería IIDrawAtletico de Marbella

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Almería II 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almería II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Almería II 72%, draw 18%, Atletico de Marbella 10%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Almería II v Atletico de MarbellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Almería II win72%

Draw18%

Atletico de Marbella win10%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Almería II

Atletico de Marbella

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almería ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Almería II a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Almería II v Atletico de Marbella~~2.25 – 0.61

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 5~~2 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almería II win	72%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Atletico de Marbella win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Almería II or draw	90%	–	–
Almería II clean sheet	55%	–	–
Atletico de Marbella clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.7%

0123450 7.0 3.7 1 12.8 8.4 2.6 2 13.7 8.1 2.6 3 10.0 5.8 4 5.9 3.3 5 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Almería II down, Atletico de Marbella across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,500 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Almería II at home: 3.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico de Marbella away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Almería II, 0.61 for Atletico de Marbella. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 13 Sept

ALMERÍA II

WLWDWW2–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

ATLETICO DE MARBELLA

DWLLLD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	8	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	−1	12
7	Málaga II	7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	−6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	−2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	−4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	−4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	−6	5
17	Cantoria	8	−10	3
18	Malaga City	7	−13	0