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Alhaurino v Arenas Armilla

Alhaurino

2–2Full time

Arenas Armilla

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Alhaurino 2–2 Arenas Armilla ALHAURINO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alhaurino win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alhaurino win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alhaurino was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
1′KICK-OFF Alhaurino v Arenas Armilla
5′A goal for Alhaurino on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Alhaurino 1–0 Arenas Armilla
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Alhaurino win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
6′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
11′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
45′HALF-TIME Alhaurino 1–0 Arenas Armilla
46′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
46′SECOND HALF Alhaurino 1–0 Arenas Armilla
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Alhaurino win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
62′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′Alhaurino score on 67′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Alhaurino 2–0 Arenas Armilla
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Alhaurino win: 39% at kick-off, 98% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Alhaurino win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′Arenas Armilla find the net on 84′. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Alhaurino 2–1 Arenas Armilla
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Alhaurino win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
85′We published Alhaurino at 39%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 94–6–0
88′A goal for Arenas Armilla on 88′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 5–91–4
88′We said Alhaurino at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 5–91–4
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Alhaurino 2–2 Arenas Armilla
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Alhaurino win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Alhaurino win 5%)
89′We said Alhaurino at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
89′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Alhaurino 2–2 Arenas Armilla
FTAlhaurino 2–2 Arenas Armilla · Alhaurino win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alhaurino are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alhaurino 39%, draw 30%, Arenas Armilla 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Alhaurino v Arenas ArmillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alhaurino win39%

Draw30%

Arenas Armilla win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:15

RoundGroup 9 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alhaurino

Arenas Armilla

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arenas Armilla	6	+8	14
12	Alhaurino	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alhaurino winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Alhaurino a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alhaurino v Arenas Armilla~~1.21 – 1.05

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~12 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alhaurino win	39%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Arenas Armilla win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Alhaurino or draw	69%	–	–
Alhaurino clean sheet	36%	–	–
Arenas Armilla clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.5 10.4 5.8 2.1 1 12.0 13.5 6.7 2.4 2 7.6 7.8 4.1 3 3.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alhaurino down, Arenas Armilla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alhaurino at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arenas Armilla away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Alhaurino, 1.05 for Arenas Armilla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARE 0–1 ALH · ALH 0–0 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 this season · since 6 Sept

ALHAURINO

DLWLLW0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0

ARENAS ARMILLA

WWDDWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melilla	6	+10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	+8	14
3	Almería II	6	+7	13
4	Marbelli	6	+3	13
5	Motril	6	+4	12
6	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	+3	11
7	Málaga II	6	+6	10
8	Granada II	6	+4	10
9	Churriana Vega	6	+3	9
10	UD San Pedro	6	−3	9
11	Torre del Mar	7	−2	7
12	Alhaurino	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	−8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	−4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	−4	4
16	Cantoria	6	−6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	−7	2
18	Malaga City	6	−12	0